In this paper, we test the use of Markov-switching (MS) GARCH (MSGARCH) models for trading either oil or natural gas futures. Using weekly data from 7 January 1994 to 31 May 2019, we tested the next trading rule: to invest in the simulated commodity if the investor expects to be in the low-volatility regime at t + 1 or to otherwise hold the risk-free asset. Assumptions for our simulations included the following: (1) we assumed that the investors trade in a homogeneous (Gaussian or t-Student) two regime context and (2) the investor used a time-fixed, ARCH, or GARCH variance in each regime. Our results suggest that the use of the MS Gaussian model, with time-fixed variance, leads to the best performance in the oil market. For the case of natural gas, we found no benefit of using our trading rule against a buy-and-hold strategy in the three-month U.S. Treasury bills.

To investigate a typical large-scale nonlinear hydropower system (HS) with a stochastic water flow, a novel nonlinear adaptive control scheme, which is created by the combination of a backstepping strategy, nonsingular fast terminal sliding mode surface and command filter, is proposed for the hydro-turbine governor design of a HS to not only improve the transient stability of the HS but also increase the energy conversion efficiency and improve the reliability and availability of the electricity supply. In contrast to previous research based on ideal hydro-turbine models with accurate parameters, an adaptive backstepping nonsingular fast terminal sliding mode control (ABNFTSMC) with command filtered (CF) is proposed in which virtual control inputs and error compensations are applied to overcome distribution characteristics resulting from energy losses, while guaranteeing finite-time convergence. In addition, to avoid the requirement of analytic differentiation in Lyapunov stability, a... [more]

With the increasing environmental concerns, plug-in electric vehicles will eventually become the main transportation tools in future smart cities. As a key component and the main power source, lithium-ion batteries have been an important object of research studies. In order to efficiently control electric vehicle powertrains, the state of charge (SOC) of lithium-ion batteries must be accurately estimated by the battery management system. This paper aims to provide a more accurate dynamic SOC estimation method for lithium-ion batteries. A dynamic Thevenin model with variable parameters affected by the temperature and SOC is established to model the battery. An unscented Kalman particle filter (UPF) algorithm is proposed based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) algorithm and the particle filter (PF) algorithm to generate nonlinear particle filter according to the advantages and disadvantages of various commonly used filtering algorithms. The simulation results show that the unscented K... [more]

Background: This paper proposes a Nautilus isometric spiral vertical axis wind turbine, which is a new structure, and its aerodynamic performance and power generation performance need to be analyzed. Methods: A 3D model of the wind turbine was built and its aerodynamic performance was analyzed. Then the wind turbine power generation and grid-connected simulation platform was built by MATLAB/SIMULINK, and its power generation performance and subsequent grid connection were studied. Results: The basic parameters of the wind turbine were obtained. In order to improve efficiency, parameters such as pressure, torque, wind energy utilization rate and relative velocity of wind turbines with different blade numbers and different sizes were compared. In addition, by building a simulation platform for the power generation control system, the power generation characteristics and grid connection characteristic curves of the generator were obtained. Conclusions: When the number of blades is three a... [more]

This study presents a methodology for classifying road traffic energy efficiency. The indicators defined discriminate the impact of the road vertical and horizontal alignments upon energy consumption, disclosing the improvement potential of the road as a function of the traffic origin−destination matrix. The methodologic approach is based on basic physical principals, thus guarantying its generality, as opposed to the usual empirical mesoscale approaches. A simplified algebraic procedure is also proposed, resorting to simplified driving cycles and a constant speed assumption (CSA), thus avoiding the intricacy of microscale/microsimulation models. The simplified methodology was validated against field data acquired on the Portuguese highway A25. A microscale vehicle specific power analysis combined with detailed fuel models is compared against CSA results. The findings demonstrate its adequacy for free-flow traffic conditions and the importance of classifying road traffic energy-efficie... [more]

The 2018 recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) defines “renewable energy communities” (RECs), introducing a new governance model and the possibility of energy sharing for them. It has to be transposed into national law by all European Union Member States until June 2021. This article introduces consumer stock ownership plans (CSOPs) as the prototype business model for RECs. Based on the analysis of a dataset of 67 best-practice cases of consumer (co-) ownership from 18 countries it demonstrates the importance of flexibility of business models to include heterogeneous co-investors for meeting the requirements of the RED II and that of RE clusters. It is shown that CSOPs—designed to facilitate scalable investments in utilities—facilitate co-investments by municipalities, SMEs, plant engineers or energy suppliers. A low-threshold financing method, they enable individuals, in particular low-income households, to invest in renewable projects. Employing one bank loan instead of m... [more]

Ocean wave energy is one of the cleanest renewable energy sources around the globe, but wave energy varies widely from place to place and from time to time. The long-term variability of wave power at 20 locations in the Indian shelf seas from 1979 to 2018 is described here using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts recently released ERA5 reanalysis hourly data. The variability is calculated on a yearly and monthly basis for the locations based on the coefficient of variation. The annual average wave power varied from 2.3 (at location 16 in the western Bay of Bengal) to 11 kW/m (at location 2 in the northeastern Arabian Sea). Along the western shelf seas, the maximum value of wave power is during the southwest monsoon period and along the east coast, it is during the tropical cyclone period. The standard deviation in wave power is more than the mean value at locations along the northern shelf seas of India, indicating a large variability in wave power in an annual cycl... [more]

The energy planning process essentially requires addressing diverse planning objectives, including prioritizing resources, and the estimation of environmental emissions and associated health risks. This study investigates the impacts of atmospheric pollution for Pakistan from the energy production processes under various modalities. A national-scale bottom-up energy optimization model (Pak-TIMES) with the ANSWER-TIMES framework is developed to assess the electricity generation pathways (2015−2035) and estimate GHG emissions and major air pollutants, i.e., CH4, CO, CO2, N2O, NOX, PM1, PM10, PM2.5, PMBC, PMOC, PMTSP, SO2, and VOC under five scenarios. These scenarios are: BAU (business-as-usual), RE-30 (30% renewables), RE-40 (40% renewables), Coal-30 (30% coal), and Coal-40 (40% coal). It is revealed that to reach the electricity demand of 3091 PJ in 2035, both the Coal-30 and Coal-40 scenarios shall cause maximum emissions of GHGs, i.e., 260.13 and 338.92 Mt (million tons) alongside 40... [more]

Non-Orthogonal Multiple Access (NOMA) has been proposed recently as an emerging radio access technology for the Fifth Generation (5G) to achieve high spectral efficiency (SE). In addition, simultaneous wireless information and power transfer (SWIPT) has been receiving exceptional attention because of its role in increasing energy efficiency (EE). In this paper, the performance of the downlink SWIPT-NOMA system has been evaluated. In this paper, signal to interference and noise ratio (SINR) is derived for near and far users with outage probability for each user, where the near user acts as an energy harvesting (EH) node. The Genetic algorithm (GA) is used as an optimization technique for the power splitting ratio and power allocation coefficients to maximize the EE under eligible SE. The outage probability for the near and far user is taken into consideration for the optimization process. In this work, the results from the SE−EE metric show that the maximum EE reached 0.325 Mbits/J at S... [more]

Diesel engines are widely used in marine transportation as a direct connection to the propeller and as electrical principal or auxiliary generator sets. The engine is the most critical piece of equipment on a vessel platform; therefore, the engine’s reliability is paramount in order to optimize safety, life cycle costs, and energy of the boat, and hence, vessel availability. In this paper, the improvements of a failure database used for a four-stroke high-speed marine diesel engine are discussed. This type of engine is normally used in military and civil vessels as the main engine of small patrols and yachts and as an auxiliary generator set (GENSET) for larger vessels. This database was assembled by considering “failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA),” as well as an analysis of the symptoms obtained in an engine failure simulator. The FMECA was performed following the methodology of reliability-centered maintenance (RCM), while the engine response against failures wa... [more]

This work aims to study the influence of an oxidant agent on syngas quality. A series of tests using air and steam as oxidant agents have been performed and the results compared with those of a pyrolysis test used as a reference. Tests were carried out at Sapienza University of Rome, using an updraft reactor. The reactor was fed with hazelnut shells, waste biomass commonly available in some parts of Italy. Temperature distribution, syngas composition and heating value, and producible energy were measured. Air and steam gasification tests produced about the same amount of syngas flow, but with a different quality. The energy flow in air gasification had the smallest measurement during the experiments. On the contrary, steam gasification produced a syngas flow with higher quality (13.1 MJ/Nm3), leading to the best values of energy flow (about 5.4 MJ/s vs. 3.3 MJ/s in the case of air gasification). From the cold gas efficiency point of view, steam gasification is still the best solution,... [more]

Thermophysical properties of engineering fluids have proven in the past to be essential for the design of physical and chemical processing and reaction equipment in the chemical, metallurgical, and allied industries, as they influence directly the design parameters and performance of plant units in the of, for example, heat exchangers, distillation columns, phase separation, and reactors. In the energy field, the search for the optimization of existing and alternative fuels, either using neutral or ionic fluids, is an actual research and application topic, both for new applications and the sustainable development of old technologies. One of the most important drawbacks in the industrial use of thermophysical property data is the common discrepancies in available data, measured with different methods, different samples, and questionable quality assessment. Measuring accurately the thermal conductivity of fluids has been a very successful task since the late 1970s due to the efforts of s... [more]

Active use of heat accumulators in the thermal system has the potential for achieving flexibility in district heating with the power to heat (P2H) units, such as electric boilers (EB) and heat pumps. Thermal storage tanks can decouple demand and generation, enhancing accommodation of sustainable energy sources such as solar and wind. The overview of flexibility, using EB and storage, supported by investigating the nature of thermal demand in a Danish residential area, is presented in this paper. Based on the analysis, curve-fitting tools, such as neural net and similar day method, are trained to estimate the residential thermal demand. Utilizing the estimated demand and hourly market spot price of electricity, the operation of the EB is scheduled for storing and fulfilling demand and minimizing energy cost simultaneously. This demonstrates flexibility and controlling the EB integrated into a multi-energy system framework. Results show that the curve fitting tool is effectively suitable... [more]

Activities of traditional longwall mining will result in ground subsidence and therefore cause issues such as damages to buildings and farmlands, water pollution and loss, and potential ecological and environmental problems in the mining region. With advantages of the longwall backfill mining method, as well as the room and pillar mining method, a continuous excavation and continuous backfill (CECB) method in longwall mining is recommended to effectively control the ground subsidence. In this method, mining roadways (MRs) are initially planned in a panel, and then they are excavated and backfilled in several stages until the whole panel is mined out and backfilled. According to the geologic conditions of an underground coal mine, and the elastic foundation beam theory, a mechanical model was built to study the subsidence of the roof while using this new mining method. In addition, methods to calculate roof subsidence in various stages in CECB were also provided. The mechanical paramete... [more]

This study focuses on the dynamics of a grid-tied voltage source converter (GVSC) during electromechanical oscillations. A small-signal model with GVSC port variables (DC voltage and AC power) as the outputs and a terminal voltage vector as the input is derived to reveal the passive response of the GVSC on the basis of the power equation in the d−q coordinate system. An input−output transfer function matrix is constructed according to the proposed model. The frequency response of this matrix in the electromechanical bandwidth is described to reflect the dynamic behavior of the GVSC. The effects of the operation parameters, i.e., the grid strength, reference value of the control system, and grid voltage, on the dynamic behavior of the GVSC in the electromechanical bandwidth, are investigated using frequency domain sensitivity. Analysis results show that the GVSC generates responses with respect to the electromechanical mode. These responses have different sensitivities to the operation... [more]

In stability studies, the response of a system enforced by external, known or unknown, inputs is of great importance. Although such an analysis is quite easy for linear systems, it becomes a cumbersome task when nonlinearities exist in the system model. Nevertheless, most of the real-world systems are externally enforced nonlinear systems with nonzero equilibriums. Representative examples in this category include power systems, where studies on stability and convergence to equilibrium constitute crucial objectives. Driven by this need, the aim of the present work is twofold: First, to substantially complete the theoretical infrastructure by establishing globally valid sufficient conditions for externally enforced nonlinear systems that converge to nonzero equilibriums and, second, to deploy an efficient method easily applicable on practical problems as it is analyzed in detail on a typical power system example. To that end, in the theoretical first part of the paper, a rigorous nonline... [more]

To reduce the dependence on oil and environmental pollution, the development of electric vehicles has been accelerated in many countries. The implementation of EVs, especially battery electric vehicles, is considered a solution to the energy crisis and environmental issues. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the technical development of EVs and emerging technologies for their future application. Key technologies regarding batteries, charging technology, electric motors and control, and charging infrastructure of EVs are summarized. This paper also highlights the technical challenges and emerging technologies for the improvement of efficiency, reliability, and safety of EVs in the coming stages as another contribution.

The main characteristics of the photovoltaic (PV) output power are the randomness and uncertainty, such features make it not easy to establish an accurate forecasting method. The accurate short-term forecasting of PV output power has great significance for the stability, safe operation and economic dispatch of the power grid. The deterministic point forecast method ignores the randomness and volatility of PV output power. Aiming at overcoming those defects, this paper proposes a novel hybrid model for short-term PV output power interval forecasting based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) as well as relevance vector machine (RVM). Firstly, the EEMD is used to decompose the PV output power sequences into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and residual (RES) components. After that, based on the decomposed components, the sample entropy (SE) algorithm is utilized to reconstruct those components where three new components with typical characteristics are obtained. Then, b... [more]

The purpose of this study is to determine the issues that financial institutions should pay attention to in their decision to provide financing to large scale energy projects. Within this framework, taking into account the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) approach, 4 dimensions and 8 criteria that can be effective in these decisions of financial institutions were determined. After that, the importance weights of these dimensions and criteria were determined by interval type-2 (IT2) fuzzy DEMATEL method. In addition, 3 different types of banks (public, private, foreign) are listed for their performance in financing energy projects. According to the results of the analysis, the technological and financial adequacy of the company that will invest in energy is the issue that financial institutions should pay the most attention to in their credit decision. Therefore, it is important for financial institutions to visit the customer's location and pay attention to the technological adequacy in the pr... [more]

Pyrolysis of anaerobically digested sludge can serve as an efficient biomass for biofuel production. Pyrolysis produces products like char, bio-oil, and combustible gases by thermochemical conversion process. It can be used for sludge treatment that decreases sludge disposal problems. Sludge produced from anaerobic co-digestion (microalgae, cow dung, and paper) waste has high carbon and hydrogen content. We investigated the candidacy of the anaerobic sludge having high heating value (HHV) of 20.53 MJ/kg as a reliable biomass for biofuels production. The process of pyrolysis was optimized with different temperatures (400, 500, and 600 °C) to produce high quantity and improved quality of the products, mainly bio-oil, char, and gas. The results revealed that with the increase in pyrolysis temperature the quantity of char decreased (81% to 55%), bio-oil increased (3% to 7%), and gas increased (2% to 5%). The HHV of char (19.2 MJ/kg), bio-oil (28.1 MJ/kg), and gas (18.1 MJ/kg) were predomin... [more]

The paper explores the impact of early stage and established entrepreneurs on industrial energy consumption across European countries for the period 2001−2017. It proposes that industrial energy consumption is a complex multifaceted result of value-added activities conducted by different types of entrepreneurs and the quality of macroeconomic and entrepreneurial framework conditions, which support or hinder entrepreneurial activity and consequently energy use. After selecting the most appropriate model using a panel Bayesian averaging model approach, a fixed effects panel regression analysis was conducted to investigate more deeply the impact of different types of entrepreneurs on industrial energy consumption. The results show that early stage and established entrepreneurs exhibit different behavioral patterns with respect to energy use. The former follows, although statistically insignificantly, a U-shaped energy use curve. By contrast, the latter follows statistically significantly... [more]

This paper investigates the influence of low-pressure glow plasma water treatment on boiling phenomenon. The presented results show the novel influence and potential new applications of low-pressure glow plasma treated water. Low-pressure glow plasma water treatment affects some of its physical properties such as surface tension, pH, and electric conductivity; this is due to changes in the water structure. An experimental analysis aimed to investigate the effect of such a treatment on the boiling heat transfer coefficient of water, and to assess the stability of GPTW. The experiments were carried out at atmospheric and reduced pressure for heat fluxes up to 70 kW/m2. The analysis shows significant deterioration of the boiling heat transfer coefficient under reduced pressure. In addition, the plasma treatment process had no significant effect on the thermal conductivity of water, as confirmed experimentally. A slight increase was observed, but it was within the measuring error range of... [more]

Virtual power plants (VPPs) have been widely researched to handle the unpredictability and variable nature of renewable energy sources. The distributed energy resources are aggregated to form into a virtual power plant and operate as a single generator from the perspective of a system operator. Power system operators often utilize the incentives to operate virtual power plants in desired ways. To maximize the revenue of virtual power plant operators, including its incentives, an optimal portfolio needs to be identified, because each renewable energy source has a different generation pattern. This study proposes a stochastic mixed-integer programming based distributed energy resource allocation method. The proposed method attempts to maximize the revenue of VPP operators considering market incentives. Furthermore, the uncertainty in the generation pattern of renewable energy sources is considered by the stochastic approach. Numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed method... [more]

Renewable energy sources (RES) have significantly helped in meeting the electricity demand of Crete, with their share in the energy balance to account for about 25% of the annual electricity production for the past five years. The contribution of photovoltaics (PVs) has been especially significant for the past three years, offering 10% in the peak demand, during summertime. This paper investigates what the capacity credit would be, i.e., up to what extent increasing existing PV capacity by about 20% can be considered as certain, to avoid installing thermal power units. In order to do so, probabilistic techniques have been applied to quantify the load that the installed thermal units in the Cretan power system should be able to meet at any time. In addition, the effect of the additional PV capacity to power system’s reliability is evaluated, introducing a new reliability index and taking into account actual data, regarding the planned and unplanned thermal units’ maintenance. Two scenar... [more]

We propose a paper solar cell based on carbon nanotube (CNT)-composite papers. To fabricate this cell, we use dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) for generating power through the redox reaction of dyes in conjunction with CNT-composite papers, which are composite materials containing CNTs and pulp (raw paper material) that can be fabricated easily by using a method based on the Japanese washi papermaking technique. The demand for CNT applications is expected to increase due to their high conductivity and metallic or semiconducting characteristics. This CNT-composite paper can also have metallic or semiconducting characteristics based on the contained CNTs in the composite paper. We previously fabricated a DSC that generates electricity by using CNT-composite papers stacked in a typical DSC structure. However, the conversion efficiency of this DSC was just 0.188%, which is not practical. To overcome this low power generation issue, we tried improving the DSC structure by applying electrod... [more]