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Records with Subject: Energy Management
Showing records 151 to 175 of 1408. [First] Page: 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Last
Split Cantilever Multi-Resonant Piezoelectric Energy Harvester for Low-Frequency Application
David Omooria Masara, Hassan El Gamal, Ossama Mokhiamar
April 24, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: finite element method, low frequency, multi-resonant, piezoelectric energy harvesting
This paper presents a new way to design a broadband harvester for harvesting high energy over a low-frequency range of 10−15 Hz. The design comprises a cantilever beam with two parallel grooves to form three dissimilar length parallel branches, each with an unequal concentrated tip mass. The piezoelectric material covers the whole length on both sides of the beam to form a bimorph. Appropriate geometry and mass magnitudes are obtained by a parametric study using the Finite Element Method. The design was simulated in COMSOL Multiphysics to study its response. The first three bending modes were utilized in energy harvesting, resulting in three power peaks at their respective fundamental frequencies. The adequate load resistance determined was 5.62 kΩ, at which maximum power can be harvested. The proposed harvester was compared to two other harvesters presented in the literature for validation: First, an optimized conventional harvester while the proposed harvester is operating at adequat... [more]
Optimizing the Size of Autonomous Hybrid Microgrids with Regard to Load Shifting
Alexander Lavrik, Yuri Zhukovskiy, Pavel Tcvetkov
April 24, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: demand response, Diesel, photovoltaic system, renewable, storage, wind turbine
The article proposes a method of multipurpose optimization of the size of an autonomous hybrid energy system consisting of photovoltaic, wind, diesel, and battery energy storage systems, and including a load-shifting system. The classical iterative Gauss−Seidel method was applied to optimize the size of a hybrid energy system in a remote settlement on Sakhalin Island. As a result of the optimization according to the minimum net present value criterion, several optimal configurations corresponding to different component combinations were obtained. Several optimal configurations were also found, subject to a payback period constraint of 5, 6, and 7 years. Optimizing the size of the hybrid power system with electric load shifting showed that the share of the load not covered by renewable energy sources decreases by 1.25% and 2.1%, depending on the parameters of the load shifting model. Net present cost and payback period also decreased, other technical and economic indicators improved; ho... [more]
Electric Arc Furnaces as a Cause of Current and Voltage Asymmetry
Zbigniew Olczykowski
April 24, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: arc furnace, current and voltage asymmetry, power quality, voltage fluctuations
In the case of three-phase arc furnaces, two types of asymmetry can be distinguished: constructional and operational. The structural asymmetry is related to the construction of high-current circuits supplying the arc furnace. The knowledge of the parameters of the high-current circuit allows to determine the operating characteristics of the arc device. The author proposed a method for calculating the real values of the resistance and reactance of the high-current circuit. For this purpose, tests were made to short-circuit the electrodes with the charge. During the short-circuit, with the use of a power quality analyzer, measurements of electrical indicators were carried out, which allow to determine the parameters of the high-current circuit. A new method for determining voltage operational unbalance is also presented in this paper. The theoretical considerations presented in the article were verified in industrial conditions.
Real-Time Dynamic Behavior Evaluation of Active Distribution Networks Leveraging Low-Cost PMUs
Xuejun Zheng, Shaorong Wang, Xin Su, Mengmeng Xiao, Zia Ullah, Xin Hu, Chang Ye
April 24, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: active distribution network, dynamic characteristics assessment, dynamic index, low-cost PMUs
The investigation of real-time dynamic behavior evaluation in the active distribution networks (ADNs) is a challenging task, and it has great importance due to the emerging trend of distributed generations, electric vehicles, and flexible loads integration. The advent of new elements influences the dynamic behavior of the electric distribution networks and increases the assessment complexity. However, the proper implementation of low-cost phasor measurement units (PMUs) together with the development of power system applications offer tremendous benefits. Therefore, this paper proposes a PMU-based multi-dimensional dynamic index approach for real-time dynamic behavior evaluation of ADNs. The proposed evaluation model follows the assessment principles of accuracy, integrity, practicability, and adaptability. Additionally, we introduced low-cost PMUs in the assessment model and implemented them for real-time and high-precision monitoring of dynamic behaviors in the entire distribution net... [more]
A New Approach for Satellite-Based Probabilistic Solar Forecasting with Cloud Motion Vectors
Thomas Carrière, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, Fuqiang Zhuang, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Philippe Blanc
April 24, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: cloud motion vector, geostationary satellite, probabilistic forecast, PV, solar
Probabilistic solar forecasting is an issue of growing relevance for the integration of photovoltaic (PV) energy. However, for short-term applications, estimating the forecast uncertainty is challenging and usually delegated to statistical models. To address this limitation, the present work proposes an approach which combines physical and statistical foundations and leverages on satellite-derived clear-sky index (kc) and cloud motion vectors (CMV), both traditionally used for deterministic forecasting. The forecast uncertainty is estimated by using the CMV in a different way than the one generally used by standard CMV-based forecasting approach and by implementing an ensemble approach based on a Gaussian noise-adding step to both the kc and the CMV estimations. Using 15-min average ground-measured Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) data for two locations in France as reference, the proposed model shows to largely surpass the baseline probabilistic forecast Complete History Persistence... [more]
On the Assessment of Cyber Risks and Attack Surfaces in a Real-Time Co-Simulation Cybersecurity Testbed for Inverter-Based Microgrids
Kirti Gupta, Subham Sahoo, Bijaya Ketan Panigrahi, Frede Blaabjerg, Petar Popovski
April 24, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: cyber-physical system (CPS), cybersecurity, distributed secondary control (DSC), DNP3, GOOSE, microgrids, Modbus, SMV, vulnerabilities
The integration of variable distributed generations (DGs) and loads in microgrids (MGs) has made the reliance on communication systems inevitable for information exchange in both control and protection architectures to enhance the overall system reliability, resiliency and sustainability. This communication backbone in turn also exposes MGs to potential malicious cyber attacks. To study these vulnerabilities and impacts of various cyber attacks, testbeds play a crucial role in managing their complexity. This research work presents a detailed study of the development of a real-time co-simulation testbed for inverter-based MGs. It consists of a OP5700 real-time simulator, which is used to emulate both the physical and cyber layer of an AC MG in real time through HYPERSIM software; and SEL-3530 Real-Time Automation Controller (RTAC) hardware configured with ACSELERATOR RTAC SEL-5033 software. A human−machine interface (HMI) is used for local/remote monitoring and control. The creation and... [more]
Review of Energy Storage and Energy Management System Control Strategies in Microgrids
Gaurav Chaudhary, Jacob J. Lamb, Odne S. Burheim, Bjørn Austbø
April 24, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: energy storage systems, microgrid control, microgrids, renewable energy systems
A microgrid (MG) is a discrete energy system consisting of an interconnection of distributed energy sources and loads capable of operating in parallel with or independently from the main power grid. The microgrid concept integrated with renewable energy generation and energy storage systems has gained significant interest recently, triggered by increasing demand for clean, efficient, secure, reliable and sustainable heat and electricity. However, the concept of efficient integration of energy storage systems faces many challenges (e.g., charging, discharging, safety, size, cost, reliability and overall management). Additionally, proper implementation and justification of these technologies in MGs cannot be done without energy management systems, which control various aspects of power management and operation of energy storage systems in microgrids. This review discusses different energy storage technologies that can have high penetration and integration in microgrids. Moreover, their w... [more]
Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Grey Wolf Optimization
Mengran Zhou, Tianyu Hu, Kai Bian, Wenhao Lai, Feng Hu, Oumaima Hamrani, Ziwei Zhu
April 24, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: electric load forecasting, grey wolf optimization, load series, support vector regression, variational mode decomposition
Short-term electric load forecasting plays a significant role in the safe and stable operation of the power system and power market transactions. In recent years, with the development of new energy sources, more and more sources have been integrated into the grid. This has posed a serious challenge to short-term electric load forecasting. Focusing on load series with non-linear and time-varying characteristics, an approach to short-term electric load forecasting using a “decomposition and ensemble” framework is proposed in this paper. The method is verified using hourly load data from Oslo and the surrounding areas of Norway. First, the load series is decomposed into five components by variational mode decomposition (VMD). Second, a support vector regression (SVR) forecasting model is established for the five components to predict the electric load components, and the grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is used to optimize the cost and gamma parameters of SVR. Finally, the predicted... [more]
A Novel Island Detection Threshold Setting Using Phasor Measurement Unit Voltage Angle in a Distribution Network
Ahmed Amirul Arefin, Khairul Nisak Binti Md. Hasan, Mohammad Lutfi Othman, Mohd Fakhizan Romlie, Nordin Saad, Nursyarizal Bin Mohd Nor, Mohd Faris Abdullah
April 24, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: acceleration angle, distribution network, over frequency, phasor measurement unit, slip angle, under frequency
Islanding detection needs are becoming a pivotal constituent of the power system, since the penetration of distributed generators in the utility power system is continually increasing. Accurate threshold setting is an integral part of the island detection scheme since an inappropriate threshold might cause a hazardous situation. This study looked at the islanding conditions as well as two transient faults, such as a single line to ground fault and a three-phase balance fault, to assess the event distinguishing ability of the proposed method. Therefore, the goal of this research was to determine the threshold of the island if the distributed generator (DG) capacity is greater than the connected feeder load, which is the over-frequency island condition, and if the DG capacity is less than the connected feeder load, which is the under-frequency island condition. The significance of this research work is to propose a new island detection threshold setting method using the slip angle and ac... [more]
Robust Multi-Step Predictor for Electricity Markets with Real-Time Pricing
Sachin Kahawala, Daswin De Silva, Seppo Sierla, Damminda Alahakoon, Rashmika Nawaratne, Evgeny Osipov, Andrew Jennings, Valeriy Vyatkin
April 24, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: demand response, electricity price forecasting, Particle Swarm Optimization, prosumers, real-time pricing
Real-time electricity pricing mechanisms are emerging as a key component of the smart grid. However, prior work has not fully addressed the challenges of multi-step prediction (Predicting multiple time steps into the future) that is accurate, robust and real-time. This paper proposes a novel Artificial Intelligence-based approach, Robust Intelligent Price Prediction in Real-time (RIPPR), that overcomes these challenges. RIPPR utilizes Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) to transform the spot price data stream into sub-series that are optimized for robustness using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. These sub-series are inputted to a Random Vector Functional Link neural network algorithm for real-time multi-step prediction. A mirror extension removal of VMD, including continuous and discrete spaces in the PSO, is a further novel contribution that improves the effectiveness of RIPPR. The superiority of the proposed RIPPR is demonstrated using three empirical studies of mul... [more]
Centralized Control of Distribution Networks with High Penetration of Renewable Energies
Fco. Javier Zarco-Soto, Pedro J. Zarco-Periñán, Jose L. Martínez-Ramos
April 24, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: congestion management, distribution network, plug-in electric vehicle, renewable energy source, voltage control
Distribution networks were conceived to distribute the energy received from transmission and subtransmission to supply passive loads. This approach, however, is not valid anymore due to the presence of distributed generation, which is mainly based on renewable energies, and the increased number of plug-in electric vehicles that are connected at this voltage level for domestic use. In this paper the ongoing transition that distribution networks face is addressed. Whereas distributed renewable energy sources increase nodal voltages, electric vehicles result in demand surges higher than the load predictions considered when planning these networks, leading to congestion in distribution lines and transformers. Additionally, centralized control techniques are analyzed to reduce the impact of distributed generation and electric vehicles and increase their effective integration. A classification of the different methodologies applied to the problems of voltage control and congestion management... [more]
Feeder Topology Configuration and Application Based on IEC 61850
Haotian Ge, Bingyin Xu, Xinhui Zhang, Yongjian Bi, Zida Zhao
April 21, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: feeder topology, IEC 61850, information model, power distribution network
Distribution automation (DA) and Internet of Things (IoT) all need the topology information of power distribution network to support some applications, such as fault diagnosis, network reconfiguration and optimization. IEC 61850 is a general communication model and standard for information exchange between intelligent electronic devices (IEDs). However, it has no mechanism for feeder topology information exchange. This paper solves this problem by developing the corresponding information model. Firstly, a feeder model is established as a container of the equipment along a distribution line. Secondly, logical models, such as terminal and connection nodes, are added to describe the physical connection relationship between the electrical equipment. Taking a circuit breaker as an example, this paper introduces how to add the terminal attribute to an existing logical node (XCBR). The physical connection between the circuit breaker and other electrical equipment is described by adding the lo... [more]
Reliability of ERA5 Reanalysis Data for Wind Resource Assessment: A Comparison against Tall Towers
Giovanni Gualtieri
April 21, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: complex site, ERA5, reanalysis, tall tower, wind energy, wind resource
The reliability of ERA5 reanalyses for directly predicting wind resources and energy production has been assessed against observations from six tall towers installed over very heterogeneous sites around the world. Scores were acceptable at the FINO3 (Germany) offshore platform for both wind speed (bias within 1%, r = 0.95−0.96) and capacity factor (CF, at worst biased by 6.70%) and at the flat and sea-level site of Cabauw (Netherlands) for both wind speed (bias within 7%, r = 0.93−0.94) and CF (bias within 6.82%). Conversely, due to the ERA5 limited resolution (~31 km), large under-predictions were found at the Boulder (US) and Ghoroghchi (Iran) mountain sites, and large over-predictions were found at the Wallaby Creek (Australia) forested site. Therefore, using ERA5 in place of higher-resolution regional reanalysis products or numerical weather prediction models should be avoided when addressing sites with high variation of topography and, in particular, land use. ERA5 scores at the H... [more]
Optimal Sizing and Energy Management of Microgrids with Vehicle-to-Grid Technology: A Critical Review and Future Trends
Oussama Ouramdane, Elhoussin Elbouchikhi, Yassine Amirat, Ehsan Sedgh Gooya
April 21, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: distributed energy generation, energy dispatching, energy management systems, Energy Storage, microgrids, optimal sizing, Optimization, vehicle-to-grid
The topic of microgrids (MGs) is a fast-growing and very promising field of research in terms of energy production quality, pollution reduction and sustainable development. Moreover, MGs are, above all, designed to considerably improve the autonomy, sustainability, and reliability of future electrical distribution grid. At the same time, aspects of MGs energy management, taking into consideration distribution generation systems, energy storage devices, electric vehicles, and consumption components have been widely investigated. Besides, grid architectures including DC, AC, or hybrid power generation systems, energy dispatching problems modelling, operating modes (islanded or grid connected), MGs sizing, simulations and problems solving optimization approaches, and other aspects, have been raised as topics of great interest for both electrical and computer sciences research communities. Furthermore, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and government policies and in... [more]
MVDC Railway Traction Power Systems; State-of-the Art, Opportunities, and Challenges
Patrobers Simiyu, I. E. Davidson
April 21, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: MMC, MVDC traction power system (TPS), PET, REM-S, smart grid (SG), traction substation (TSS)
Advances in voltage-source converters (VSCs), as well as their successful application in VSC-HVDC systems, have motivated growing interests and research in medium-voltage direct current (MVDC) traction power systems (TPSs) for high-speed rail (HSR) applications. As an emerging power-converter-based infrastructure, this study reviewed developments that shape two key evolving pieces of equipment—namely, high-power traction substation (TSS) converters, and power electronic transformers (PETs)—for MVDC TPS as well as prospects for smart grid (SG) applications in the future. It can be deduced that cost-effective and robust high-power TSS converters are available from hybrid modular multilevel converters (MMCs) for enhanced performance and fault-tolerance capability. In addition, silicon carbide (SiC) MMC-based PETs with input-series-output-parallel (ISOP) configuration are present for greater weight/size reduction and efficiency for MVDC rolling stock design. Finally, the implementation of... [more]
Power Converters, Electric Drives and Energy Storage Systems for Electrified Transportation and Smart Grid Applications
Lucian Mihet-Popa, Sergio Saponara
April 21, 2023 (v1)
The proposed special issue (SI) has invited submissions related to renewable energy, energy storage, power converters and electric drive systems for electrified transportation and smart grid applications [...]
Machine Learning and GIS Approach for Electrical Load Assessment to Increase Distribution Networks Resilience
Alessandro Bosisio, Matteo Moncecchi, Andrea Morotti, Marco Merlo
April 21, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: geographic information systems, Machine Learning, power distribution networks, system resilience
Currently, distribution system operators (DSOs) are asked to operate distribution grids, managing the rise of the distributed generators (DGs), the rise of the load correlated to heat pump and e-mobility, etc. Nevertheless, they are asked to minimize investments in new sensors and telecommunication links and, consequently, several nodes of the grid are still not monitored and tele-controlled. At the same time, DSOs are asked to improve the network’s resilience, looking for a reduction in the frequency and impact of power outages caused by extreme weather events. The paper presents a machine learning GIS-based approach to estimate a secondary substation’s load profiles, even in those cases where monitoring sensors are not deployed. For this purpose, a large amount of data from different sources has been collected and integrated to describe secondary substation load profiles adequately. Based on real measurements of some secondary substations (medium-voltage to low-voltage interface) giv... [more]
Local Flexibility Markets for Distribution Network Congestion-Management in Center-Western Europe: Which Design for Which Needs?
Theo Dronne, Fabien Roques, Marcelo Saguan
April 21, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: congestion management, local flexibility market, market-design
With the growth of decentralized resources, congestion management at the distribution level has become a growing issue in Europe. Several initiatives with local flexibility markets are being implemented, with different designs and objectives. In this paper, we provide a comparative assessment of four case studies of local flexibility markets (ENERA, GOPACS, UKPN, and ENEDIS) in different center-western Europe countries: Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and France. We identify a number of differences across these countries that have an impact on the drivers of implementation of these local flexibility markets and their market design such as the type and depth of congestion, the organization and governance of networks operators, the current approach for congestion management, and the need for the development of additional flexibility sources. We find that the different market design choices can be explained by the local specificities and use the four case studies to generali... [more]
Short-Term Net Load Forecasting with Singular Spectrum Analysis and LSTM Neural Networks
Akylas Stratigakos, Athanasios Bachoumis, Vasiliki Vita, Elias Zafiropoulos
April 21, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: LSTM, short-term load forecasting, singular spectrum analysis, time series decomposition
Short-term electricity load forecasting is key to the safe, reliable, and economical operation of power systems. An important challenge that arises with high-frequency load series, e.g., hourly load, is how to deal with the complex seasonal patterns that are present. Standard approaches suggest either removing seasonality prior to modeling or applying time series decomposition. This work proposes a hybrid approach that combines Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)-based decomposition and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for day-ahead hourly load forecasting. First, the trajectory matrix of the time series is constructed and decomposed into trend, oscillating, and noise components. Next, the extracted components are employed as exogenous regressors in a global forecasting model, comprising either a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) or a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) predictive layer. The model is further extended to include exogenous features, e.g., weather forecasts, transformed via parallel de... [more]
Taking into Consideration the Inclusion of Wind Generation in Hybrid Microgrids: A Methodology and a Case Study
Luis Arribas, Natalia Bitenc, Andreo Benech
April 21, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: design methodology, HOMER Pro, microgrid, small wind turbine, WDPS, wind data sources
During the last decades, there has been great interest in the research community with respect to PV-Wind systems but figures show that, in practice, only PV-Diesel Power Systems (PVDPS) are being implemented. There are some barriers for the inclusion of wind generation in hybrid microgrids and some of them are economic barriers while others are technical barriers. This paper is focused on some of the identified technical barriers and presents a methodology to facilitate the inclusion of wind generation system in the design process in an affordable manner. An example of the application of this methodology and its results is shown through a case study. The case study is an existing PVDPS where there is an interest to incorporate wind generation in order to cope with a foreseen increase in the demand.
Hydraulic Transients in Viscoelastic Pipeline System with Sudden Cross-Section Changes
Michał Kubrak, Agnieszka Malesińska, Apoloniusz Kodura, Kamil Urbanowicz, Michał Stosiak
April 21, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: cross-section change, hydraulic transients, viscoelasticity, water hammer
It is well known that the water hammer phenomenon can lead to pipeline system failures. For this reason, there is an increased need for simulation of hydraulic transients. High-density polyethylene (HDPE) pipes are commonly used in various pressurised pipeline systems. Most studies have only focused on water hammer events in a single pipe. However, typical fluid distribution networks are composed of serially connected pipes with various inner diameters. The present paper aims to investigate the influence of sudden cross-section changes in an HDPE pipeline system on pressure oscillations during the water hammer phenomenon. Numerical and experimental studies have been conducted. In order to include the viscoelastic behaviour of the HDPE pipe wall, the generalised Kelvin−Voigt model was introduced into the continuity equation. Transient equations were numerically solved using the explicit MacCormack method. A numerical model that involves assigning two values of flow velocity to the conne... [more]
Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Convolutional Neural Networks in COVID-19 Context: The Romanian Case Study
Andrei M. Tudose, Irina I. Picioroaga, Dorian O. Sidea, Constantin Bulac, Valentin A. Boicea
April 21, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: convolutional neural networks, COVID-19, short-term load forecasting
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is fundamental for the proper operation of power systems, as it finds its use in various basic processes. Therefore, advanced calculation techniques are needed to obtain accurate results of the consumption prediction, taking into account the numerous exogenous factors that influence the results’ precision. The purpose of this study is to integrate, additionally to the conventional factors (weather, holidays, etc.), the current aspects regarding the global COVID-19 pandemic in solving the STLF problem, using a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based model. To evaluate and validate the impact of the new variables considered in the model, the simulations are conducted using publicly available data from the Romanian power system. A comparison study is further carried out to assess the performance of the proposed model, using the multiple linear regression method and load forecasting results provided by the Romanian Transmission System Operator (TSO). In... [more]
AC vs. DC Distribution Efficiency: Are We on the Right Path?
Hasan Erteza Gelani, Faizan Dastgeer, Mashood Nasir, Sidra Khan, Josep M. Guerrero
April 21, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: DC distribution networks, DC vs. AC, energy efficiency in buildings, energy savings, microgrids
The concept of DC power distribution has gained interest within the research community in the past years, especially due to the rapid prevalence of solar PVs as a tool for distributed generation in DC microgrids. Various efficiency analyses have been presented for the DC distribution paradigm, in comparison to the AC counterpart, considering a variety of scenarios. However, even after a number of such comparative efficiency studies, there seems to be a disparity in the results of research efforts, wherein a definite verdict is still unavailable. Is DC distribution a more efficient choice as compared to the conventional AC system? A final verdict is absent primarily due to conflicting results. In this regard, system modeling and the assumptions made in different studies play a significant role in affecting the results of the study. The current paper is an attempt to critically observe the modeling and assumptions used in the efficiency studies related to the DC distribution system. Seve... [more]
A Study of the Wages in the Spanish Energy Sector
Francisco Sánchez-Cubo, José Mondéjar-Jiménez, Alejandro García-Pozo, Guillermo Ceballos-Santamaría
April 21, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Energy, human capital, PLS-SEM, salaries, Spain
The role of the energy industry has always been central for one reason or another, being environmentalism the main motive in the last two decades. Therefore, attention and research have been directed in this sense. However, human resources—or human capital—have remained understudied, especially concerning the salaries received. Thus, this study is disruptive as it explored the factors that influence employee remuneration in the energy subsector, using Spain as a case study. For this, the PLS-SEM (Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling) path modelling methodology was used, executing a traditional PLS analysis, bootstrapping and, finally, IPMA (Importance-Performance Analysis). Solid and significant relationships were found among labour conditions, human capital, market and wages, with the relationships between human capital and wages and between human capital and labour conditions being especially relevant. Besides, through IPMA, a series of considerations was made regardin... [more]
Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements
Mohamed Massaoudi, Ines Chihi, Lilia Sidhom, Mohamed Trabelsi, Shady S. Refaat, Fakhreddine S. Oueslati
April 21, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: energy management, feature importance, Photovoltaic (PV) Power Forecasting, random decision forest, smart grid, weather sensors
Short-term Photovoltaic (PV) Power Forecasting (STPF) is considered a topic of utmost importance in smart grids. The deployment of STPF techniques provides fast dispatching in the case of sudden variations due to stochastic weather conditions. This paper presents an efficient data-driven method based on enhanced Random Forest (RF) model. The proposed method employs an ensemble of attribute selection techniques to manage bias/variance optimization for STPF application and enhance the forecasting quality results. The overall architecture strategy gathers the relevant information to constitute a voted feature-weighting vector of weather inputs. The main emphasis in this paper is laid on the knowledge expertise obtained from weather measurements. The feature selection techniques are based on local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations, Extreme Boosting Model, and Elastic Net. A comparative performance investigation using an actual database, collected from the weather sensors, demonstra... [more]
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