LAPSE:2023.33797
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.33797
Robust Multi-Step Predictor for Electricity Markets with Real-Time Pricing
Sachin Kahawala, Daswin De Silva, Seppo Sierla, Damminda Alahakoon, Rashmika Nawaratne, Evgeny Osipov, Andrew Jennings, Valeriy Vyatkin
April 24, 2023
Real-time electricity pricing mechanisms are emerging as a key component of the smart grid. However, prior work has not fully addressed the challenges of multi-step prediction (Predicting multiple time steps into the future) that is accurate, robust and real-time. This paper proposes a novel Artificial Intelligence-based approach, Robust Intelligent Price Prediction in Real-time (RIPPR), that overcomes these challenges. RIPPR utilizes Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) to transform the spot price data stream into sub-series that are optimized for robustness using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. These sub-series are inputted to a Random Vector Functional Link neural network algorithm for real-time multi-step prediction. A mirror extension removal of VMD, including continuous and discrete spaces in the PSO, is a further novel contribution that improves the effectiveness of RIPPR. The superiority of the proposed RIPPR is demonstrated using three empirical studies of multi-step price prediction of the Australian electricity market.
Keywords
demand response, electricity price forecasting, Particle Swarm Optimization, prosumers, real-time pricing
Suggested Citation
Kahawala S, De Silva D, Sierla S, Alahakoon D, Nawaratne R, Osipov E, Jennings A, Vyatkin V. Robust Multi-Step Predictor for Electricity Markets with Real-Time Pricing. (2023). LAPSE:2023.33797
Author Affiliations
Kahawala S: Centre for Data Analytics and Cognition, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC 3083, Australia
De Silva D: Centre for Data Analytics and Cognition, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC 3083, Australia [ORCID]
Sierla S: Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, School of Electrical Engineering, Aalto University, FI-00076 Espoo, Finland [ORCID]
Alahakoon D: Centre for Data Analytics and Cognition, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC 3083, Australia
Nawaratne R: Centre for Data Analytics and Cognition, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC 3083, Australia [ORCID]
Osipov E: Department of Computer Science, Electrical and Space Engineering, Luleå Tekniska Universitet, SE-97187 Luleå, Sweden
Jennings A: Centre for Data Analytics and Cognition, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC 3083, Australia [ORCID]
Vyatkin V: Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, School of Electrical Engineering, Aalto University, FI-00076 Espoo, Finland; Department of Computer Science, Electrical and Space Engineering, Luleå Tekniska Universitet, SE-97187 Luleå, Sweden
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
14
First Page
4378
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-07-20
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en14144378, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.33797
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doi:10.3390/en14144378
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Apr 24, 2023
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