National Grid, the UK’s largest utility company, has produced a number of energy transition scenarios, among which “2 degrees” is the most aggressive in terms of decarbonization. This paper presents the results of a combined prospective net energy and environmental life cycle assessment of the UK electricity grid, based on such a scenario. The main findings are that the strategy is effective at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions (albeit to a reduced degree with respect to the projected share of “zero carbon” generation taken at face value), but it entails a trade-off in terms of depletion of metal resources. The grid’s potential toxicity impacts are also expected to remain substantially undiminished with respect to the present. Overall, the analysis indicates that the “2 degrees” scenario is environmentally sound and that it even leads to a modest increase in the net energy delivered to society by the grid (after accounting for the energy investments required to deploy all t... [more]

Access to electricity for every South African citizen, including rural dwellers, is a human right issue guaranteed by the government’s laws and policies. However, many remote rural areas still suffer from a lack of this very important amenity, due to the expensive prospect of connecting them to the central national grid. The feasible approach to connecting the rural communities to electricity supply is suggestively through the use of microgrid solutions. The microgrid technology is a very recent and viable option for the energy revolution. Microgrids result from the incorporation of energy storage systems, distributed generators, and localized loads. The application of this technology requires deliberate and extensive work on the operational architecture and the policy framework to be adopted. The energy storage devices form an integral part of the microgrid configuration or architecture to make sure more maintainable and constant operation is attained. This paper presents a review of... [more]

Analyzing data from the Energy Poverty Observatory in Europe, it emerges that more than 50 million households in the EU live in energy poverty (people that cannot heat their homes during winter; cannot make their homes comfortable during the summer; pay their energy bills late). Research studies realized in the last 20 years highlight that making energy demand efficient and effective is the more significant and socially important the more it is able to involve users who are unable to sustain energy demand. The evolution of the research sees a narrowing of the field of investigation by focusing on the user dimension of energy poverty, stressing the role of citizens not only as consumer but also as producers of solutions to tackle energy poverty, real energy communities of agents. The paper aims to provide a systematic literature review highlighting the major findings of the topic, investigating the relationship between spatial and social issues, and looking at the state of energy povert... [more]

Urban waste heat recovery, in which low temperature heat from urban sources is recovered for use in a district heat network, has a great deal of potential in helping to achieve 2050 climate goals. For example, heat from data centres, metro systems, public sector buildings and waste water treatment plants could be used to supply 10% of Europe’s heat demand. Despite this, at present, urban waste heat recovery is not widespread and is an immature technology. Based on interviews with urban waste heat stakeholders, investors interested in green investments, and experience from demonstrator projects, a number of recommendations are made. It is suggested that policy raising awareness of waste heat recovery, encouraging investment and creating a legal framework should be implemented. It is also recommended that pilot projects should be promoted to help demonstrate technical and economic feasibility. A pilot credit facility is suggested aimed at bridging the gap between potential investors and... [more]

This work exploits data from 30,000 energy performance certificates of whole nonresidential (NR) buildings in Greece. The available information is analyzed for 30 different NR building uses (e.g., hotels, schools, sports facilities, hospitals, retails, offices) and four main services (space heating, space cooling, domestic hot water and lighting). Data are screened in order to exclude outliers and checked for consistency with the Hellenic NR building stock. The average energy use and CO2 emission intensities for all building uses are calculated, as well as the respective energy ratings in order to gain a better understanding of the NR sector. Finally, in an attempt to determine whether these values are representative for the various Hellenic NR building uses, their temporal evolution is investigated. The average primary energy use intensity is 448.0 kWh/m2 for all NR buildings, while the CO2 emissions reach 147.5 kgCO2/m2. The derived energy baselines reveal that indoor sports halls/sw... [more]

The present study aimed to assess and classify energy-environmental efficiency levels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the production, commercialization, and use of biofuels certified by the Brazilian National Biofuel Policy (RenovaBio). The parameters of the level of energy-environmental efficiency were standardized and categorized according to the Energy-Environmental Efficiency Rating (E-EER). The rating scale varied between lower efficiency (D) and high efficiency + (highest efficiency A+). The classification method with the J48 decision tree and naive Bayes algorithms was used to predict the models. The classification of the E-EER scores using a decision tree using the J48 algorithm and Bayesian classifiers using the naive Bayes algorithm produced decision tree models efficient at estimating the efficiency level of Brazilian ethanol producers and importers certified by the RenovaBio. The rules generated by the models can assess the level classes (efficiency scores) according... [more]

The transition towards a reliable, sustainable, low-carbon energy system is a major challenge of the 21st century. Due to the lower energy density of many renewable energy sources, a future system is expected to be more decentralized, leading to significant changes at the regional scale. This study analyzes the feasibility of the energy transition in the Swiss canton of Aargau as an illustrative example and explores different strategies to satisfy the local demand for electricity, heat, and fuel by 2035. In particular, we assess the potential contribution of biomass. Four scenarios demonstrate what energy demand proportion could be covered by bioenergy if different priorities were given to the provision of heat, electricity, and fuel. The impact of improved conversion technologies is also considered. The results show that the sustainably available renewable energy sources in canton Aargau will probably not be sufficient to cover its forecasted energy demand in 2035, neither with presen... [more]

A recent study by the Wall Street Journal reveals that the hydrofractured horizontal wells in shales have been producing less than the industrial forecasts with the empirical hyperbolic decline curve analysis (DCA). As an alternative to DCA, we introduce a simple, fast and accurate method of estimating ultimate recovery in oil shales. We adopt a physics-based scaling approach to analyze oil rates and ultimate recovery from 14,888 active horizontal oil wells in the Bakken shale. To predict the Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), we collapse production records from individual horizontal shale oil wells onto two segments of a master curve: (1) We find that cumulative oil production from 4845 wells is still growing linearly with the square root of time; and (2) 6401 wells are already in exponential decline after approximately seven years on production. In addition, 2363 wells have discontinuous production records, because of refracturing or changes in downhole flowing pressure, and are matc... [more]

The political discussion to reduce the carbon footprint of Germany’s electricity sector, focusing on coal, is intensifying. In this paper, we develop scenarios for phasing out lignite and hard coal power plants in Germany prior to the end of their technical lifespan (“coal-exit”). Our analysis bases upon two coal-exit instruments, the retirement of coal generation capacities and the limiting of how much aged coal power plants with high carbon intensity can be used within a year. Results show that phasing out coal in Germany would have a considerable impact on Central European electricity markets, in terms of decarbonization efforts and electricity trade. An ambitious coal-exit could avert foreseeable shortcomings in Germany’s climate performance in the short-run and release additional carbon savings, thus compensating for potential shortfalls in other energy-intensive sectors by 2030. Limited emissions in the range of 27% would be shifted to neighboring countries. However, tremendous p... [more]

Solar plants suffer of partial shading and mismatch problems. Without considering the generation of hot spots and the resulting security issues, a monitoring system for the health of a PV plant should be useful to drive a dynamic reconfiguration system (DRS) to solve bottlenecks due to different panels’ shading. Over the years different DRS architectures have been proposed, but no suggestions about costs and benefits have been provided. Starting from technical subjects such as differences of the topologies driving the hardware complexity and number of components, this paper identifies the cost of DRS and its lifetime, and based on these issues it provides an economic analysis for a 6 kWp PV plant in different European Union countries, in which the dissimilar incentive policies have been considered.

The achievement of carbon neutrality requires a deep transformation of the Polish power sector. This paper analyses the impact of increased electricity generation from wind and solar technologies envisaged in the newest version of the Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 on the operation of dispatchable generators in 2030. The analysis was carried out using the Model of Economic Dispatch and Unit commitment for System Analysis (MEDUSA) model, which solves a mixed integer problem related to unit commitment and economic dispatch in electrical power production. At first, the model was validated based on the real operation data from 2018. Next, five scenarios were built to analyse the operation of the system in 2030. The overall result of the study is that the safest solution from the point of view of power system stability is to extend the decommissioning of coal units of 200 and 300 MW classes, to invest in renewable energy sources (RES) according to the energy policy, to build new gas pow... [more]

The U.S. and Canada continue to face major changes in energy production. Mounting awareness of the climate crisis has placed increasing importance on developing renewable energy sources, however, advances in fossil fuel extraction technology have opened vast domestic reserves of oil and natural gas. Public preferences for energy policy play a role in determining energy futures, but researchers rarely simultaneously compare public views across multiple renewable and non-renewable energies or across country boundaries. Here, we used a 2019 online survey sample (n = 1500) to compare predictors of support for eight fuel sources for electricity generation in British Columbia, Canada, and Washington and Oregon, USA. Results indicate the highest support overall for renewables (wind, solar, wave/tidal energy, geothermal) and the lowest for fossil fuels (coal and natural gas), nuclear, and hydropower. Mixed-effects regression modeling indicates that views on climate and the balance between envi... [more]

Finland has adopted a high profile in climate change mitigation. A national target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2035 has been declared. As a part of this, the use of coal for energy purposes has been banned from May 2029 onwards. The Nordic electricity market was a world fore-runner in creating a liberalized, multi-national electricity market in the 1990s. At present, the electricity systems of Finland, Sweden, and Norway are already very low-carbon. The Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined the Nordic market about a decade ago. Estonian electricity production is the most carbon-intensive of all the EU countries due to the extensive use of domestic oil shale. Especially Lithuania still suffers from capacity deficit created by the closure of the Soviet time nuclear reactor Ignalina in Lithuania. This paper presents the ambitions of the EU and national level energy and climate policies and models the multi-national impacts of Finland’s forthcoming closure of coal-fi... [more]

Energy policy is often a contentious issue in the U.S. in the areas of infrastructure, conservation, and price discrimination. From the siting of new pipelines, conservation regulations, and variable pricing based on times and usage, many policies have been met by intense opposition as well as support from a variety of sources. In this context, this study examines individual-level attributes (e.g., political ideology, environmental values, and demographic characteristics) that lead to support for or opposition to infrastructure, conservation, and price discrimination policies. The identification of demographic and value correlates of energy policy preferences is important for the successful development of energy policies. Data from 2019 random household surveys in the U.S. western states of California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington are used to examine the variation in views on a variety of energy policies. Multivariate analyses reveal that those with more liberal political ideology and... [more]

Time-of-use (TOU) electricity tariffs represent an instrument for demand side management. By reducing energy demand during peak times, less investments in otherwise necessary, costly, and CO2 intensive redispatch would be required. We use a choice experiment (CE) to analyze private consumers’ acceptance of TOU tariffs in Germany. In our CE, respondents choose between a fixed rate tariff and two TOU tariffs that differ by peak time scheme and by a control of appliances’ electricity consumption during that time. We use a mixed logit model to account for taste heterogeneity. Moreover, investigating decision strategies, we identify three different strategies that shed light on drivers of unobserved taste heterogeneity: (1) Always choosing the status quo, (2) always choosing the maximum discount, and (3) choosing a TOU tariff but not always going for the maximum discount. Overall, about 70% of our 1398 respondents would choose a TOU tariff and shift their electricity demand, leading to a de... [more]

Electric vehicles (EVs) have been around for more than a hundred years. Nevertheless, their deployment has not been a sustainable success up until now. Many scientists, engineers and policymakers argue that EVs are a promising, maybe even indispensable option to achieve ambitious decarbonization goals, if powered by electricity from renewable energy sources. At the moment, the EVs market is gaining a lot of momentum and we may be near the point of no return for a sustained mass market deployment of electric vehicles. Many papers exist that describe future prospects of EVs. In our commentary we try to provide a bigger picture view and look at market and societal aspects. We analyze why previous generations of EVs were not successful and how current electric vehicles could become a sustainable success. We perform a semi-quantitative Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) analysis and find that current electric vehicle designs are technologically on par with or better than c... [more]

The world’s aging fleet of nuclear power reactors faces decommissioning. Because decommissioning is implemented through a series of procedures, and this process changes the links between some industries, its economic impact needs to be investigated. This study compared the economic impacts of three nuclear industry sectors—nuclear generation, nuclear power construction, and nuclear decommissioning—using input-output analysis in South Korea, the first Asian country that has declared a nuclear phaseout. The study also traced changes in the structure of the nuclear industry during the Korean nuclear phaseout and the consequent economic impacts. The study found that the implementation of the nuclear phaseout will lead to a decrease in the induced outputs and the value added of nuclear industries in South Korea; however, this would be offset by deploying more renewable energy. In addition, the temporal impacts on individual sectors vary depending on changes in the number of reactors being d... [more]

It is widely acknowledged that strategies to decarbonize energy systems cannot omit the mobility sector. For several decades, particularly in urban areas, a shift from car-based mobility to more environmental-friendly modes has been high on political agendas. Progress has been made in many urban areas, but so far only in small, rather incremental steps. The dominance of the car has remained largely stable in urban transport. For some time now, many experts have argued that processes of digitalization will co-evolve with societal trends and lead to multimodal urban mobility regimes in which private car usage will lose its dominance. In this paper, we examine if stakeholders active in the field believe that, despite digitalization, policy interventions are essential to achieve such a transition. The analysis draws on concepts from transition research and is based on 10 semi-structured interviews with providers of innovative mobility services that may contribute to more multimodal urban m... [more]

The substitution of traditional energy production with renewable energy sources (RES) in the European Union (EU) represents a multidimensional issue with its pros and cons viewed differently by governments, technology companies, markets, as well as the general public. There are significant public doubts in expediency of investments in renewables in place. Our paper studies the factors related to the public opinion on renewables using a reasonable and representative sample of respondents (N = 1026) from one of the EU Member States, the Czech Republic, via a set of ordinal regression analyses with spline correction for ordinal predictors. Our results suggest that the population of the Czech Republic is split in half in its trust in renewables as a substitute to traditional energy sources. In addition, our results show that the opinions on renewables in the Czech Republic are significantly related to personal concerns on environmental protection and worries about use of nuclear energy. Mo... [more]

Energy systems integration (ESI) provides a holistic view of the electricity, gas, and heat sectors, which allows the identification and delivery of system solutions that lead to an overall cost efficiency while granting the reliability of the energy system. In this paper, we search for evidence of investments in ESI in the EU to assess whether policymakers are incentivizing its adoption adequately. To do so, we examine how innovation is being fostered in the energy sector in six EU countries by looking at the incentives provided by each country’s regulatory system. We look for evidence on investments in ESI-enabling technologies or ESI projects. We find a variety of approaches towards incentivizing innovation, which range from regulation-driven to government-driven ones. Preferences for different technologies emerge on a per-country basis. Nevertheless, what appears as most striking is the low level of investments throughout the six countries, both for ESI-enabling technologies and ES... [more]

The purchase subsidy policy gives powerful support in battery electric vehicles’ (BEVs) market penetration. However, the purchase subsidy is also a huge financial burden for the government, so it can only be considered as a transitional measure and will be canceled gradually. This paper aims to investigate the impact of purchase subsidy phase-out on BEV adoptions and explore alternative incentive policies to continue stimulating BEV adoptions. A stated preference (SP) survey is conducted in Beijing, and a binary logit (BL) model is established to describe how various factors affect BEV adoption preferences. In addition to the factors related to vehicle techniques, the policies of license plate restrictions and driving restrictions are focused due to Beijing’s unique external policy environment. The vehicle use subsidy and bus line driving permit are tested as alternative incentive policies against the purchase subsidy decrease. The results show that incentive policies can significantly... [more]

The dynamic bottom-up modelling of greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement measures in industry makes it possible to derive consistent transformation paths on the basis of heterogeneous, process-specific developments. The main focus is on the development of a transparent methodology for small-scale modelling and combination of individual GHG abatement measures. In this way, interactions between GHG abatement measures are taken into account when deriving industrial transformation paths. The presented three-part methodological approach comprises the preparation (1) and implementation (2) of GHG abatement measures as well as the resulting effects on the output parameters (3) in a technology mix module. In order to consider interactions in the measures implementation, year-specific overall measure matrices are created and prioritised based on the GHG abatement costs. Finally, the three-part methodology is tested in a consistent technology mix scenario. The results show that the methodology enables... [more]

The unequal distribution of costs and benefits of the energy transition is a challenge for energy justice and energy policy. Although the empowerment of consumers to participate in renewable energy communities (RECs) has great potential for a just energy transition, vulnerable consumers remain underrepresented in RE projects. The recast of the European renewable energy directive obliges the European Member States to facilitate the participation of vulnerable consumers and support their inclusion in its “enabling framework” for prosumership. However, the type and specific design of corresponding measures remains unclear. Against this background this article investigates consumer empowerment in a vulnerability context. In particular we stress the need to understand how vulnerability affects participation in RECs to inform both policy makers and practitioners on its specificities and restrictions for the “enabling framework”. To prevent the inclusion of vulnerable consumers in RECs from r... [more]

Energy poverty is a serious problem affecting many people in the world. To address it and alleviate it, the first action is to identify and measure the intensity of the population living in this condition. This paper seeks to generate information regarding the actual state of energy poverty by answering the research question: is it possible to measure the intensity of energy poverty between different Latin American countries with sufficient and equivalent data? To achieve this, the Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (), proposed by Nussbaumer et al., was used. The results present two levels of lack of access to energy services: Energy Poverty (EP) and Extreme Energy Poverty (EEP). The last one, is a concept introduced by the authors to evaluate energy poverty using. Results of people living on EP (EEP within parentheses) are as follow: Colombia 29% (18%), Dominican Republic 32% (14%), Guatemala 76% (61%), Haiti 98% (91%), Honduras 72% (59%), Mexico 30% (17%) and Peru 65% (42%). A cl... [more]

The first aim of this study was to examine whether people drive light cars carefully in comparison with standard-sized cars. The second aim was to evaluate the factors that influence these risky driving indicators. Data were collected from 49 drivers in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, from November 2014 to January 2015. Risky driving behaviors included; (1) speeding, (2) high speed on a non-expressway, (3) high speed on an expressway, (4) high right/left turn rate, (5) long travel, (6) driving at night, (7) driving on an expressway, and (8) driving frequency. At first, the frequency or number of these indicators was compared between the light car group and the standard size car group by a t-test. Second, regression models were established to evaluate the influence of age, gender, living area, and car classification on each risky indicator. The t-test results showed that there was no significant difference in risky driving behaviors between the light car group and the others. The regression mo... [more]