The estimation of radioactivity release following an accident in a nuclear power plant is crucial due to its short and long-term impacts on the surrounding population and the environment. In the case of any accidental release, the activity needs to be estimated quickly and reliably to effectively plan a rapid emergency response and design an appropriate evacuation strategy. The accurate prediction of incurred dose rate during normal or accident scenario is another important aspect. In this article, three different non-linear estimation techniques, extended Kalman filter, unscented Kalman filter, and cubature Kalman filter are proposed in order to estimate release activity and to improve the prediction of dose rates. Radionuclide release rate, average wind speed, and height of release are estimated using the dose rate monitors data collected in proximity of the release point. Further, the estimates are employed to improve the prediction of dose rates. The atmospheric dispersion phenomen... [more]

In order to account for big uncertainties such as well interferences, hydraulic and natural fractures’ properties and matrix properties in shale gas reservoirs, it is paramount to develop a robust and efficient approach for well spacing optimization. In this study, a novel well spacing optimization workflow is proposed and applied to a real shale gas reservoir with two-phase flow, incorporating the systematic analysis of uncertainty reservoir and fracture parameters. One hundred combinations of these uncertainties, considering their interactions, were gathered from assisted history matching solutions, which were calibrated by the actual field production history from the well in the Sichuan Basin. These combinations were used as direct input to the well spacing optimization workflow, and five “wells per section” spacing scenarios were considered, with spacing ranging from 157 m (517 ft) to 472 m (1550 ft). An embedded discrete fracture model was used to efficiently model both hydraulic... [more]

Accurate energy profiles are essential to the optimization of parallel applications for energy through workload distribution. Since there are many model-based methods available for efficient construction of energy profiles, we need an approach to measure the goodness of the profiles compared with the ground-truth profile, which is usually built by a time-consuming but reliable method. Correlation coefficient and relative error are two such popular statistical approaches, but they assume that profiles be linear or at least very smooth functions of workload size. This assumption does not hold true in the multicore era. Due to the complex shapes of energy profiles of applications on modern multicore platforms, the statistical methods can often rank inaccurate energy profiles higher than more accurate ones and employing such profiles in the energy optimization loop of an application leads to significant energy losses (up to 54% in our case). In this work, we present the first method specif... [more]

This paper presents a deep analysis of different feed-forward (FF) techniques combined with two different proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control to guide a real piezoelectric actuator (PEA). These devices are well known for a non-linear effect called “hysteresis” which generates an undesirable performance during the device operation. First, the PEA was analysed under real experiments to determine the response with different frequencies and voltages. Secondly, a voltage and frequency inputs were chosen and a study of different control approaches was performed using a conventional PID in close-loop, adding a linear compensation and a FF with the same PID and an artificial neural network (ANN). Finally, the best result was contrasted with an adaptive PID which used a single neuron (SNPID) combined with Hebbs rule to update its parameters. Results were analysed in terms of guidance, error and control signal whereas the performance was evaluated with the integral of the absolute err... [more]

With the development of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) control technology, one of the recent trends in this research domain is to utilize UAVs to perform non-contact transmission line inspection. The RGB camera mounted on UAVs collects large numbers of images during the transmission line inspection, but most of them contain no critical components of transmission lines. Hence, it is a momentous task to adopt image classification algorithms to distinguish key images from all aerial images. In this work, we propose a novel classification method to remove redundant data and retain informative images. A novel transmission line scene dataset, namely TLS_dataset, is built to evaluate the classification performance of networks. Then, we propose a novel convolutional neural network (CNN), namely TL-Net, to classify transmission line scenes. In comparison to other typical deep learning networks, TL-Nets gain better classification accuracy and less memory consumption. The experimental results show... [more]

Thermochemical Energy Storage (TCES), specifically the calcium oxide (CaO)/calcium hydroxide (Ca(OH)2) system is a promising energy storage technology with relatively high energy density and low cost. However, the existing models available to predict the system’s internal states are computationally expensive. An accurate and real-time capable model is therefore still required to improve its operational control. In this work, we implement a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) to predict the dynamics of the TCES internal state. Our proposed framework addresses three physical aspects to build the PINN: (1) we choose a Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogeneous Inputs (NARX) with deeper recurrence to address the nonlinear latency; (2) we train the network in closed-loop to capture the long-term dynamics; and (3) we incorporate physical regularisation during its training, calculated based on discretized mole and energy balance equations. To train the network, we perform numerical s... [more]

In Europe, more and more data on building energy use will be collected in the future as a result of the energy performance of buildings directive (EPBD), issued by the European Union. Moreover, both at European level and globally it became evident that the real energy performance of new buildings and the existing building stock needs to be documented better. Such documentation can, for example, be done with data-driven methods based on mathematical and statistical approaches. Even though the methods to extract energy performance characteristics of buildings are numerous, they are of varying reliability and often associated with a significant amount of human labour, making them hard to apply on a large scale. A classical approach to identify certain thermal performance parameters is the energy signature method. In this study, an automatised, nonlinear and smooth approach to the well-known energy signature is proposed, to quantify key thermal building performance parameters. The research... [more]

Plate anchors are a well-established solution for supporting the efforts of floating platforms for wind and marine renewable energies. The behavior of ultrathin rigid plate anchors buried in purely cohesive soils under undrained and plane-strain conditions is analyzed. As already known, a dimensional analysis shows that the pull-out capacity of the anchor may be expressed using a weightless break-out factor (Nc) that only depends on the ratio between the depth and the anchor width (H/B). Using finite element analyses, tabulated values of the weightless break-out factor are provided in this paper and three different failure mechanisms are identified, namely very shallow (quasi-vertical), shallow or intermediate (semi-vertical), and deep (rotational). For very shallow failure mechanisms, the studied problem is completely equivalent to the trapdoor problem because immediate breakaway at the bottom part of the anchor is considered (vented conditions). The existing analytical solutions for... [more]

Since 2003, Brazil has striven to provide energy access to all, in rural areas, in an effort to economically empower the communities. Unpacking fuel stacking behaviour can shed light onto the speed of transition toward the exclusive use of advanced fuel types. This paper presents findings from surveys that were carried out with 14 non-electrified communities in a rural area of Rio Negro, Amazonas State, Brazil. We identify the fuel choice determinants in these communities using a multinomial logistic regression model and more generally discuss the validity and robustness of such models in the context of statistical validation and evaluation metrics. Specifically for the Amazonas communities considered in this study, the research showed that the fuel choice determinants are the age of household, the number of people at meals each day, the number of meals daily, the community, education of the household head, and the income level of the household. Moreover, given the Brazilian policies r... [more]

Wind turbine blade deterioration issues have come to the attention of researchers and manufacturers due to the relevant impact they can have on the actual annual energy production (AEP). Research has shown how after prolonged exposure to hail, rain, insects or other abrasive particles, the outer surface of wind turbine blades deteriorates. This leads to increased surface roughness and material loss. The trailing edge (TE) of the blade is also often damaged during assembly and transportation according to industry veterans. This study aims at investigating the loss of AEP and efficiency of modern multi-MW wind turbines due to such issues using uncertainty quantification. Such an approach is justified by the stochastic and widely different environmental conditions in which wind turbines are installed. These cause uncertainties regarding the blade’s conditions. To this end, the test case selected for the study is the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine (RWT), a modern reference turbine with a... [more]

The accuracy of wind power forecasting depends a great deal on the data quality, which is so susceptible to cybersecurity attacks. In this paper, we study the cybersecurity issue of short-term wind power forecasting. We present one class of data attacks, called false data injection attacks, against wind power deterministic and probabilistic forecasting. We show that any malicious data can be injected to historical data without being discovered by one of the commonly-used anomaly detection techniques. Moreover, we testify that attackers can launch such data attacks even with limited resources. To study the impact of data attacks on the forecasting accuracy, we establish the framework of simulating false data injection attacks using the Monte Carlo method. Then, the robustness of six representative wind power forecasting models is tested. Numerical results on real-world data demonstrate that the support vector machine and k-nearest neighbors combined with kernel density estimator are the... [more]

The largest obstacle that suppresses the increase of wind power penetration within the power grid is uncertainties and fluctuations in wind speeds. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting is a challenging task, which can significantly impact the effective operation of power systems. Wind power forecasting is also vital for planning unit commitment, maintenance scheduling and profit maximisation of power traders. The current development of cost-effective operation and maintenance methods for modern wind turbines benefits from the advancement of effective and accurate wind power forecasting approaches. This paper systematically reviewed the state-of-the-art approaches of wind power forecasting with regard to physical, statistical (time series and artificial neural networks) and hybrid methods, including factors that affect accuracy and computational time in the predictive modelling efforts. Besides, this study provided a guideline for wind power forecasting process screening, allowing... [more]

Uncertainties in instantaneous dam-break floods are difficult to assess with standard methods (e.g., Monte Carlo simulation) because of the lack of historical observations and high computational costs of the numerical models. In this study, polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) was applied to a dam-break flood model reflecting the population of large concrete dams in Switzerland. The flood model was approximated with a metamodel and uncertainty in the inputs was propagated to the flow quantities downstream of the dam. The study demonstrates that the application of metamodeling for uncertainty quantification in dam-break studies allows for reduced computational costs compared to standard methods. Finally, Sobol’ sensitivity indices indicate that reservoir volume, length of the valley, and surface roughness contributed most to the variability of the outputs. The proposed methodology, when applied to similar studies in flood risk assessment, allows for more generalized risk quantification than... [more]

We propose the use of wavelet-based semiparametric models for forecasting the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) in the crude oil market. We compared the forecast outcomes across different time scales for three semiparametric models, three nonparametric, distribution-based, generalized, autoregressive, conditional, heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, and three rolling-window models. We found that the GARCH model estimated by the Fissler and Ziegel (FZ) zero loss minimization (GARCH-FZ) model performs the best at forecasting the VaR and ES in the short term, whereas the hybrid model performs the best for mid- and long-term time scales. Thus, long-term investors should consider the hybrid model and short-term investors should employ the GARCH-FZ model in their risk management processes. Overall, our proposed wavelet-based semiparametric models outperform the other models tested for all time scales and market conditions. As such, we suggest that these models are considered for... [more]

The problem of extracting maximum power from a photovoltaic (PV) system with negligible power loss is concerned with the power generating capability of the PV array and nature of the output load. Changing weather conditions and nonlinear behavior of PV systems pose a challenge in tracking of varying maximum power point. A robust nonlinear controller is required to ensure maximum power point tracking (MPPT) by handling nonlinearities of a system and making it robust against changing environmental conditions. Sliding mode controller is robust against disturbances, model uncertainties and parametric variations. It depicts undesirable phenomenon like chattering, inherent in it causing power and heat losses. In this paper, a supertwisting sliding mode algorithm based nonlinear robust controller has been designed for MPPT of a PV system which not only removes the chattering but also enhances the overall system’s dynamic response. Moreover, supertwisting sliding mode controller is robust agai... [more]

Stuck pipe incidents are one of the contributors to non-productive time (NPT), where they can result in a higher well cost. This research investigates the feasibility of applying machine learning to predict events of stuck pipes during drilling operations in petroleum fields. The predictive model aims to predict the occurrence of stuck pipes so that relevant drilling operation personnel are warned to enact a mitigation plan to prevent stuck pipes. Two machine learning methodologies were studied in this research, namely, the artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). A total of 268 data sets were successfully collected through data extraction for the well drilling operation. The data also consist of the parameters with which the stuck pipes occurred during the drilling operations. These drilling parameters include information such as the properties of the drilling fluid, bottom-hole assembly (BHA) specification, state of the bore-hole and operating conditions. The... [more]

One of the essential parameters to measure the stability and power-quality of an energy grid is the network impedance. Including distinct resonances which may also vary over time due to changing load or generation conditions in a network, the frequency characteristic of the impedance is an import part to analyse. The determination and analysis of the impedance go hand in hand with a massive amount of data output. The reduction of this high-resolution voltage and current datasets, while maintaining the fidelity of important information, is the main focus of this paper. The presented approach takes measured impedance datasets and a set of lossy compression procedures, to monitor the performance success with known key metrics. Afterwards, it continually compares the results of various lossy compression techniques. The innovative contribution is the combination of new and existing procedures as well as metrics in one approach, to reduce the size of the impedance datasets for the first time... [more]

The paper presents a research method concerning the application of statistical prognostic models for assessment of material durability and operational reliability of steel for steam pipelines, whose operation has exceeded the working time of 100,000 h. Decisions on the admission of long-lived materials to work for power industry results from extensive diagnostic examinations are based on the results of tests of mechanical properties, microstructure degradation, and corrosion processes. Considering the economic reasons and available data published in diagnostic reports, the determination of failure-free operating time of steam pipelines is based on the results of static tensile tests—tensile strength (Rm); conventional yield point (Rp); elongation (A) and Vickers hardness (V), correlated with the operating time and the media type (fresh steam and secondarily super-heated steam) for the most sensitive element of a pipeline, namely the elbow. The results of changes in strength properties... [more]

Despite the increasing popularity of permanent magnet synchronous machines, induction motors (IM) are still the most frequently used electrical machines in commercial applications. Ensuring a failure-free operation of IM motivates research aimed at the development of effective methods of monitoring and diagnostic of electrical machines. The presented paper deals with diagnostics of an IM with failure of an inter-turn short-circuit in a stator winding. As this type of failure commonly does not lead immediately to exclusion of a drive system, an early stage diagnosis of inter-turn short-circuit enables preventive maintenance and reduce the costs of a whole drive system failure. In the proposed approach, the early diagnostics of IM with the inter-turn short-circuit is based on the analysis of an electromagnetic torque waveform. The research is based on an elaborated numerical field−circuit model of IM. In the presented model, the inter-turn short-circuit in the selected winding has been a... [more]

In this study, a model equation is derived that uses a statistical analysis based on empirical models to predict the airtightness of reinforced concrete apartment buildings popular in Asian regions. Airtightness data from 486 units personally measured by the authors in the past eight years are used. As major variables used in the prediction model, two groups of variables are configured for the geometric components of the envelope, which is a major path of airflow in a building and is where air infiltration and leakage occur. The two groups of variables represent (1) the areas of the individual components forming the envelope and (2) the connection lengths between different components of the envelope. For the effective prediction of airtightness, correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were applied step by step in this study. The results of the correlation analysis indicated that the areas of the slab and the window are the area variables that present the greatest impact,... [more]

With the rapid development of ground source heat pump (GSHP) system, energy saving measures are of special interest for practice. In order to meet heating demand, capacity control of GSHP system can be carried out by regulating either part load ratio (PLR) or supply water temperature. A data-driven optimization approach was developed and applied on a school building in heating mode, which aims at minimizing energy consumption without compromising thermal comfort. An artificial neural network (ANN) model of the GSHP system was proposed and trained with experimental data as well as simulated data of a validated physics-based model, which was employed for data supplement to cover more data variations. The multi-objective optimization problem was then solved using genetic algorithm. The results suggest the optimal operation strategy for either continuous or staged capacity control regarding heating demand variation. With the proposed optimal control strategy, energy savings as compared to... [more]

With an increasing share of renewable energy resources participating in electricity markets, there is a growing dependence between renewable power production and clearing prices of spot markets. Modeling this dependence using bivariate analysis can result in underestimation of market risks and adverse effects for stakeholders’ risk management. To enable an undistorted risk assessment, we are using a copula approach to precisely and jointly model electricity prices and infeed volumes of wind power. We simulate the case of wind farm operators using power purchase agreements (PPAs) to shift the price risk to an energy trader, who integrates the infeed into its portfolio. The trader’s portfolio can either be geographically dispersed, or highly localized. Based on its portfolio, the energy trader can decide to use derivatives such as futures to manage its risk exposure. The trader decides on future volumes subject to its portfolio’s inherent volatility. With a given risk averse strategy, a... [more]

With the development of micro-grids including PV production and storage, the need for efficient energy management strategies arises. One of their key components is the forecast of the energy production from very short to long term. The forecast time-step is an important parameter affecting not only its accuracy but also the optimal control time discretization, hence its efficiency and computational burden. To quantify this trade-off, four machine learning forecast models are tested on two geographical locations for time-steps varying from 2 to 60 min and horizons from 10 min to 6 h, on global irradiance horizontal and tilted when data was available. The results are similar for all the models and indicate that the error metric can be reduced up to 0.8% per minute on the time-step for forecasts below one hour and up to 1.7% per ten minutes for forecasts between one and six hours. In addition, it is shown that for short term horizons, it may be advantageous to forecast with a high resolut... [more]

The present study proposes a model to predict the heat transfer coefficient in R134a liquid−vapor two-phase pulsating flow boiling in an evaporator using the experimental data and response surface methodology (RSM). The model is based on the current existing empirical correlation for R134a liquid−vapor two-phase continuous flow with an imposed modification factor. The model for the imposed modification factor is the function of the pulsating period and inlet/outlet vapor quality, which is obtained using the limited experimental data. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) is carried out to test the significance of the model and normal probability of residuals is analyzed as well. Results show that the regression model produces a mean error of −4.3% and a standard deviation of 15.4%, compared to experimental results. Of the data 95.1% is contained inside a ±50% error window, which indicates that the proposed model could predict the heat transfer coefficient of R134a liquid−vapor two-phase puls... [more]

For a safe drilling operation with the of minimum borehole instability challenges, building a mechanical earth model (MEM) has proven to be extremely valuable. However, the natural complexity of reservoirs along with the lack of reliable information leads to a poor prediction of geomechanical parameters. Shear wave velocity has many applications, such as in petrophysical and geophysical as well as geomechanical studies. However, occasionally, wells lack shear wave velocity (especially in old wells), and estimating this parameter using other well logs is the optimum solution. Generally, available empirical relationships are being used, while they can only describe similar formations and their validation needs calibration. In this study, machine learning approaches for shear sonic log prediction were used. The results were then compared with each other and the empirical Greenberg−Castagna method. Results showed that the artificial neural network has the highest accuracy of the prediction... [more]