China has set out an ambitious target of emission abatement; that is, a 60−65% reduction in CO2 emission intensity by 2030 compared with the 2005 baseline level and emission peak realisation. This paper aimed to forecast whether China can fulfil the reduction target of CO2 emission intensity and peak by 2030 based on the historical time series data from 1990 to 2018. Four different forecasting techniques were used to improve the accuracy of the forecasting results: the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and three grey system-based models, including the traditional grey model (1,1), the discrete grey model (DGM) and the rolling DGM. The behaviours of these techniques were compared and validated in the forecasting comparisons. The forecasting performance of the four forecasting models was good considering the minimum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), demonstrating MAPE values lower than 2%. ARIMA showed the best forecasting performance over the historical period... [more]

The transformation of a power supply, a social-technical system suffering from a heavy lock-ins, requires structural adaptations which are extremely complex. All actors in social acceptance processes have either strong vested interests in the current system or are challenging these. In strategies developed by those actors, so-called ‘frames’ play a key role. These are biased problem definitions and mental shortcuts, tools to affect the course of decision-making processes. Examples are “clean coal”, “smart grid”, “base-load”, or “decentralized”. Framing is fundamental to political processes, including those of decision making on renewables. This review presents a glossary of significant frames used in social acceptance processes of renewables’ innovation in power supply systems. The identified frames are classified and presented with, in each entry, one significant frame discussed and analyzed in relation to its most associated frames. Overall, the contrast comes to the fore between the... [more]

The steel sector is crucial for the national economy of Poland and the global economy. In response to the challenges of the global steel market and the need to increase the sector’s competitiveness, a number of actions have been taken to increase the energy efficiency of steel production. Based on the synthesis of the literature and our own research, we describe the issues related to energy efficiency and the Industry 4.0 concept. The main aim of this paper is to identify energy efficiency trends in enterprises, especially those that focus on increasing the energy efficiency of production processes, and to make recommendations for investment policy for the Polish steel sector in the era of Industry 4.0. To achieve our goals and answer the research question, we used data from 2000−2019 for the Polish steel industry. The calculations and models in this paper were made by using Gretl software. Using direct research, an econometric model was built that verified the hypothesis regarding the... [more]

This paper proposes a methodology to assess the impact of alternative electricity generation and energy storage scenarios for meeting electricity demand on a national level. The method combines real and synthetic electricity generation and demand data to investigate different decarbonization strategies using solar and wind generation and electrical energy storage. This method is applied to provide relevant case studies for two geographically similar electricity systems in New Zealand and Great Britain. Newly available solar and wind data sets at hourly resolution are used within this method for these systems to assess the potential contribution of these technologies and as such, to refresh understanding of the impact of these technologies on decarbonization strategies against historical and future demand patterns. Although wind, solar and storage technologies are found to reduce the carbon emissions in both electricity systems, a key result is quantifying the impact this has on traditi... [more]

With the negative climate impact of fossil fuel power generation and the requirement of global policy to shift towards a green mix of energy production, the investment in renewable energy is an opportunity in developing countries. However, poor economy associated with limited income, funds availability, and regulations governing project funding and development are key factors that challenge investors in the energy sector. Given the various power generation resources, including renewables, it is necessary to evaluate the possible power generation investment options from an economic perspective. To realize this objective, solar PV, wind and diesel power generations are economically compared, considering the incremental rate of return and incremental benefit to cost ratio techniques. The alternative investment options of distributed generation technologies are evaluated for Maharashtra, India under different depreciation methods, and the effect of the latter on selecting the best investme... [more]

This study investigates the effect of a renewable energy dissemination policy on investment decisions regarding solar photovoltaic (PV) installation. We present a theoretical model and conduct a simulation analysis to estimate the total capacity of solar PV generators according to a given subsidy policy. We show how the capacity maximizing subsidy policy depends on the total amount of subsidy budget, interest rate, the expected amount of solar resource and land price in each region. We particularly focus on the improvements of solar PV capacities under the same subsidy budget when the subsidy policy is changed from uniform (equal for all regions) to differential (varying over regional characteristics). This improvement is shown through a case study using Korean data.

In this work, a novel methodology based on the real options theory has been developed for the evaluation of photovoltaic energy projects with a capacity greater than 100 KW in France. French legislation that regulates these types of projects presents two real options: on the one hand, the producer has a put option that consists of choosing between a Feed-in Tariff system and electricity market sale prices every year, and this put option coincides with public subsidies granted by the French Administration. On the other hand, the French Administration has a call option that provides a benefit to the public sector. This option supposes a limit on the subsidized production of electricity and reduces the value of the project to the promoter. The value of the put option is 4.28 € per MWh generated. The Extended Net Present Value has a value of −5.26 million Euros. The breakeven point of the project is achieved with an increase of 59% in the regulated rate. This means that the French Administ... [more]

The paper deals with the problems linked to the energy renovation of multi-apartment buildings and developed a case study in Lithuania with the aim to assess the household’s willingness to pay for energy renovation and to define the main barriers preventing the households from making decisions to renovate their apartments in residential buildings. Energy renovation provides huge energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential and though policies and measures exist to promote large scale energy renovation, there are still many barriers and the pace of energy renovation is still very slow, especially in new EU member states and former Soviet Union members. These countries have inherited old, energy inefficient residential buildings from their Soviet past, and their inhabitants are locked in energy poverty because of their inability to renovate their apartments. This paper analyzed the current situation in the selected country and presents the results of a case study on wi... [more]

Energy poverty can be defined as the inability to pay the bills that are required for maintaining the comfort conditions (usually in winter) in dwellings. The use of energy efficient systems is one way forward to mitigate this problem, with one option being the electrically driven air source heat pump water heater. This paper assesses the performance of a centralised heat pump (200 kW of heating capacity) to meet the space heating demand of block dwellings in Madrid (tier four out of five in winter severity in Spain). Two models have been developed to obtain the following variables: the hourly thermal energy demand and the off-design heat pump performance. The proposed heat pump is driven by a motor with variable rotational speed to modulate the heating capacity in an efficient way. A back-up system is also considered to meet the peak demand. A levelised cost of heating of 92.22 €/MWh is obtained for a middle-level energy efficiency in housing (class E, close to D). Moreover, the follo... [more]

Poland is the most coal-dependent economy and one of the biggest polluters in the EU. In order to alleviate this problem, meet CO2 emission requirements set by EU, and improve the country’s energy security, Poland decided to introduce nuclear power to its energy mix. So far, several potential locations for nuclear power plants have been officially proposed, mainly based on technical parameters, but no comparisons of the economic impact of such locations have been considered. Consequently, the main goal of this paper is to compare the national and regional economic effects of investments in nuclear power plants—for both the construction and exploitation phases—in the four most probable locations, which are similarly beneficial from a technical point of view. In order to simulate these effects, the spatial recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model was calibrated until 2050 including agglomeration effects and featuring the regional economies of all Polish regions. The results... [more]

In this paper, we investigate the transition to clean energy technologies in the Boston area, as perceived through the lens of strategic niche management. The main goal of the study was to assess the role of policy in fostering/hindering the development of the clean energy niche and the complete deployment of clean energy technologies in this area. Using argumentative discourse analysis, our research showed that the clean energy niche in the Boston area is generally perceived as strong and dynamic. However, the public de-legitimizing narrative identified gaps at the policy level that include, among others, the limited engagement of the local and federal government in breaking through well-established practices and regulatory frameworks, funding, and infrastructure. These gaps are likely to delay the market uptake of clean energies in this area.

Land use change is the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions after fossil combustion, which can hurt ecological environment severely. Intensive study on land use carbon emissions is of great significance to alleviate environmental pressure, formulate carbon emission reduction policy, and protect ecological development. The lower Yellow River area is an important area of economic development, grain cultivation, and agricultural production in China. Land use change has significant economic, environmental, and ecological impacts in this region. Deep study of land used carbon emissions and its influencing factors in the lower Yellow River area is not only of great significance to the environmental improvement in the Yellow River basin, but also can provide references for the research of other basins. Based on this, this paper studies the land use carbon emissions of 20 cities in the lower Yellow River area from 1995 to 2018. The results showed that from 1995 to 2018, the land u... [more]

Building databases are important assets when estimating and planning for national energy savings from energy retrofitting. However, databases often lack information on building characteristics needed to determine the feasibility of specific energy conservation measures. In this paper, machine learning methods are used to enrich the Swedish database of Energy Performance Certificates with building characteristics relevant for a chosen set of energy retrofitting packages. The study is limited to the Swedish multifamily building stock constructed between 1945 and 1975, as these buildings are facing refurbishment needs that advantageously can be combined with energy retrofitting. In total, 514 ocular observations were conducted in Google Street View of two building characteristics that were needed to determine the feasibility of the chosen energy retrofitting packages: (i) building type and (ii) suitability for additional façade insulation. Results showed that these building characteristic... [more]

The Hydrothermal Coordination problem consists of determining an operation policy for hydroelectric and thermoelectric plants within a given planning horizon. In systems with a predominance of hydraulic generation, the operation policy to be adopted should specify the operation of hydroelectric plants, so that hydroelectric resources are used economically and reliably. This work proposes the implementation of reservoir operation rules, using inter-basin water transfer through an optimization model based on Network Flow and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The proposed algorithm aims to obtain an optimized operation policy of power generation reservoirs and consequently to maximize the hydroelectric benefits of the hydrothermal generation system, to reduce the use of thermoelectric plants, the importation and/or energy deficit and to reduce the cost associated with meeting the demand and reduce CO2 emissions from combustion of fossil fuels used by thermoelectric plants. In order to il... [more]

The adoption of renewable energies contributes to sustainable development worldwide. Entrepreneurs are key agents in facilitating their promotion, as they improve the mix of the means of production and thus transform renewable energy technologies into viable energy systems. Nonetheless, the literature tends to treat entrepreneurs as a homogeneous group, thus preventing comprehensive understanding of their motivations, behaviors, capabilities, and effects. This study addresses this research gap by identifying and categorizing the various characteristics of these entrepreneurs and developing an integrated classification method. Four examples of renewable energy entrepreneurs, in China, Denmark, Germany, and India, are analyzed according to the proposed classification method, while demonstrating their differences. Thus, through proposing a new analytical typology, this study improves our understanding of renewable energy entrepreneurs and their significant role in the promotion of renewab... [more]

The world’s economic development depends on access to cheap energy sources. So far, energy has been obtained mainly from conventional sources like coal, gas and oil. Negative climate changes related to the high emissions of the economy based on the combustion of hydrocarbons and the growing public awareness have made it necessary to look for new ecological energy sources. This condition can be met by renewable energy sources. Both social pressure and international activities force changes in the structure of sources from which energy is produced. This also applies to the European Union countries, including Poland. There are no scientific studies in the area of forecasting energy production from renewable energy sources for Poland. Therefore, it is reasonable to investigate this subject since such a forecast can have a significant impact on investment decisions in the energy sector. At the same time, it must be as reliable as possible. That is why a modern method was used for this purpo... [more]

With the average solar radiation reaching up to 5 kWh/m2, Vietnam is considered as a country showing an excellent potential for solar power production. Since the year 2000, there have been a lot of studies about the potential of this source in Vietnam. So far, many applications of solar power have been implemented on small, medium, and large scales. In fact, the total capacity of current grid-connected solar power plants has exceeded the planned capacity by 2020 nearly 6 times. However, the studies of solar potential in Vietnam are still incomplete. The policies and mechanisms for developing solar power projects have received attention from the authorities but have not been really satisfactory. The infrastructure is still poor and the power system does not keep up with the development of modern grids. This paper reviewed the potential and actual implementation stage of photovoltaic projects in Vietnam. Moreover, the barriers and challenges of institution, technique, economy, and financ... [more]

Energy security is an international concern for all countries in the world, particularly, for the policymakers looking for the wellbeing of citizens. While proper methods to measure energy security without ignoring the different aspects and multidimensional interplay is necessary, the need for an objective evaluation with numerical indicators is of utmost importance. This research covers these gaps by providing a detailed numerical method to formulate an energy security index that is globally comprehensive, but also nationally applicable to all countries in the world. This implies to include all needed aspects and dimensions of energy security. Results of this research show the global performance of all countries in the world in energy security and the performance of these countries in each of the 15 dimensions that articulate energy security. Germany and the United States performed best in the world, when it comes to overall energy security levels, whereas the Central African Republic... [more]

The efficient uptake of decentralized solar rooftop photovoltaics (PV) is in some cases hindered by ineffective energy and political framework conditions. These may be based on inaccurate and uncertain potential assessments in the early development stage of the solar market. This paper develops a more accurate, cost-effective, and robust potential assessment for emerging and developing economies. Adjusting the module efficiency corresponding to regional and household conditions improves the output accuracy. The rooftop PV market changes are simulated regarding different input changes and policy designs, including changing the Feed-In Tariff (FIT), grid tariff, and technology development. In the case study, the market potential in Vietnam is estimated at 260−280 TWh/a and is clustered into six groups in priority order, in which Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh need the most policy focus. Changing the FIT from 8.83 to 9 Euro cent/kWh and using different regional FITs can activate an additional 16%... [more]

The paper analyzes South Korea’s strategy in the global oil market. South Korean oil cooperation is characterized by the creation or termination of joint projects in the oil sector, as well as the Republic of Korea’s national project for the diversification of state-energy suppliers. Oil cooperation currently has great potential, and the conditions that have developed at the highest level allow open discussions about positive dynamics for short-term and medium-term prospects in the field of oil cooperation. The analysis presented here includes export and import connections in the oil market. The authorities of the current administration of the Republic of Korea have adopted a new political stance towards the north, in accordance with which the state is actively developing and establishing relations with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Russian Federation. In the coming years, South Korea aims to renew and revise potential projects in the field of oil cooperation... [more]

Efforts to achieve an energy transition often neglect to account for the levelling of benefits realizable with higher levels of energy use, despite knowledge of a saturation effect and recognition of increasing harms of use. This research examines energy sufficiency as a maximum quantity of energy associated with improvements in human well-being to inform a recalibration of energy targets among high-energy societies. A systematic review of recent research was performed to identify the point at which increasing levels of energy use no longer correlate with meaningful increases in well-being. For selected studies (n = 18), energy sufficiency values range from 60−221 gigajoules per capita per year with a mean of 132 gigajoules per capita per year for associated measures of well-being. The review finds agreement in a pattern of saturation and provides a range of values for energy sufficiency maximums, suggesting that a relatively modest amount and a diverse quality of energy is needed to s... [more]

Building energy renovations can effectively improve the environmental performance and energy sustainability of existing buildings. From 2007 onwards, the Chinese government has promoted energy-saving renovations of existing urban residential buildings. Nevertheless, various quality failures happen during the construction period in energy-saving renovation projects of residential buildings. Yet, the causes and their characters remain largely unknown. Through a literature review, this paper investigates the causes of quality failures. Validated through experts’ interviews, a total of 18 causes were identified in building energy renovation projects. These causes were analyzed from two main aspects: the importance of a cause (related to impact and frequency), and the level of effort required to address a cause (related to origin and scale), using both a questionnaire survey and a focus group. The results indicate that the critical causes of quality failures are working under high-cost and... [more]

Latvia’s industrial energy efficiency policy imposes the implementation of mandatory energy audits and energy management systems in large industrial enterprises and large industrial electricity consumers to improve industrial competitiveness, to move towards a carbon-neutral economy and to increase the security of supply. Companies affected by this energy efficiency policy are obliged to report to the national energy efficiency monitoring system on energy efficiency measures indicated in energy audits or energy management systems with the highest savings or economical potential. The purpose of this study was to assess the initial outcomes of the first industrial energy efficiency program in Latvia, using data from the national energy efficiency monitoring system, including an analysis of individual energy audit reports, and benchmarking it with findings from a similar program, thereby revealing untapped energy efficiency and CO2 emission reduction potential. Although the national monit... [more]

National Grid, the UK’s largest utility company, has produced a number of energy transition scenarios, among which “2 degrees” is the most aggressive in terms of decarbonization. This paper presents the results of a combined prospective net energy and environmental life cycle assessment of the UK electricity grid, based on such a scenario. The main findings are that the strategy is effective at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions (albeit to a reduced degree with respect to the projected share of “zero carbon” generation taken at face value), but it entails a trade-off in terms of depletion of metal resources. The grid’s potential toxicity impacts are also expected to remain substantially undiminished with respect to the present. Overall, the analysis indicates that the “2 degrees” scenario is environmentally sound and that it even leads to a modest increase in the net energy delivered to society by the grid (after accounting for the energy investments required to deploy all t... [more]

Access to electricity for every South African citizen, including rural dwellers, is a human right issue guaranteed by the government’s laws and policies. However, many remote rural areas still suffer from a lack of this very important amenity, due to the expensive prospect of connecting them to the central national grid. The feasible approach to connecting the rural communities to electricity supply is suggestively through the use of microgrid solutions. The microgrid technology is a very recent and viable option for the energy revolution. Microgrids result from the incorporation of energy storage systems, distributed generators, and localized loads. The application of this technology requires deliberate and extensive work on the operational architecture and the policy framework to be adopted. The energy storage devices form an integral part of the microgrid configuration or architecture to make sure more maintainable and constant operation is attained. This paper presents a review of... [more]