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Showing records 32145 to 32169 of 43621. [First] Page: 1 1283 1284 1285 1286 1287 1288 1289 1290 1291 Last
32145. LAPSE:2023.7317
Factoring Permeability Anisotropy in Complex Carbonate Reservoirs in Selecting an Optimum Field Development Strategy
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: fractured rock system, permeability, permeability anisotropy, petrophysical correlations, porosity, reservoir simulation model
Current methods of oil and gas field development design rely on reservoir simulation modeling. A reservoir simulation model is a tool to reproduce field development processes and forecast production data. Reservoir permeability is one of the basic properties that determines fluid flow. From existing approaches, the porosity and permeability values should be consistent with petrophysical correlations obtained from core sample tests in the course of development of an absolute permeability cube in the reservoir simulation model. For carbonate reservoirs with complex pore space structure and fractures, the petrophysical correlations are often unstable. To factor in the fluid flow in a fractured rock system, dual-medium models are developed, allowing for matrix and fracture components. Yet in this case, the degree of uncertainty only increases with the introduction of a new parameter: a cross-flow index of fluid migration from matrix to fracture, which is only determined indirectly by resul... [more]
32146. LAPSE:2023.7316
On the Employment of a Chloride or Fluoride Salt Fuel System in Advanced Molten Salt Reactors, Part 1: Thermophysical Properties and Core Criticality
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: EVOL, fuel salt, iMAGINE, molten salt fast reactors, neutronic criticality, nuclear reactors, thermophysical properties
Molten salt reactors (MSRs), as one of the six main technologies of Gen IV, can meet the broad area of sustainability, economics, safety and reliability, proliferation resistance and physical protection goals. One of the main and first challenges in designing molten salt fast reactors (MSFRs) is the selection of an appropriate molten salt fuel system based on the envisaged applications and objectives. In this study’s series, a full-scope evaluation has been conducted about employing either chloride or fluoride salt fuels as the main competitors’ candidates for fuel salt in MSFR designs. Two distinguished projects, EVOL (CNRS, Grenoble-France), based on fluoride salt, and iMAGINE (The University of Liverpool, UK), based on chloride salts, were considered in order to achieve this goal as case studies. The first part of this series (part 1—this article) deals with the investigation of the thermophysical properties of the salt fuel system, criticality search and neutron-flux energy spectru... [more]
32147. LAPSE:2023.7315
Unconventional Energy from an Electric Impulse Heater Combined with a Wind Turbine
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: capacitive storage, electric pulse heater, wind energy, wind power plant
The widespread use of wind power plants can provide full or partial energy supply to the consumer, taking into account certain investments and the instability of energy production. Modern wind energy technology involves the conversion of mechanical energy of the wind flow into electrical energy with subsequent conversion, at the request of the consumer, into thermal energy. In addition, the unprocessed use of the low-potential part of the wind flow, characterized by non-uniformity and randomness of its reception for the purpose of supplying heat to the recipient, requires new approaches to solving this problem. Bench experimental studies of this heater confirmed the adequacy of the mathematical model: within an hour, the temperature increase of the heater core changed from 22 °C to 36 °C at a voltage of 66 V and the number of pulses entering the heater coil was (15−17) discharges, which corresponds to the values of the mathematical expectation of the wind speed of (4−5.2) m∙s−1 in the... [more]
32148. LAPSE:2023.7314
Green and Blue Hydrogen Production: An Overview in Colombia
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: blue hydrogen, Colombia, green hydrogen, Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Colombia, a privileged country in terms of diversity, availability of natural resources, and geographical location, has set a roadmap for hydrogen as part of the energy transition plan proposed in 2021. To reduce its emissions in the mid-term and foster its economy, hydrogen production should be green and blue, with specific targets set for 2030 for the hydrogen costs and produced quantities. This work compares the state-of-the-art production of blue and green hydrogen and how Colombia is doing in each pathway. A deeper analysis considers the advantages of Colombia’s natural resources, the possible paths the government could follow, and the feedstock’s geographical location for hydrogen production and transportation. Then, one discusses what may be the next steps in terms of policies and developments to succeed in implementing the plan. Overall, it is concluded that green hydrogen could be the faster, more sustainable, and more efficient method to implement in Colombia. However, blue h... [more]
32149. LAPSE:2023.7313
Short-Circuit Fault Current Parameter Prediction Method Based on Ultra-Short-Time Data Window
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: current amplitude, high-frequency interference, trend filtering technology, ultra-short-time data windows, white noise interference
The prediction of short-circuit current parameters is essential for the adoption of short-circuit fault limiting techniques and the reliable cut-off of circuit breakers. In order to quickly and accurately predict the short-circuit current waveform parameters, a short-circuit fault current prediction method based on ultra-short-time data windows (UDWs) is proposed. First, a mathematical model for describing short-circuit faults is constructed and the characteristics of short-circuit currents are analyzed. Then, the principle of the UDW method for predicting short-circuit current waveform parameters is derived, the correctness of the principle is verified by setting-up an ideal signal through simulation, and the exponential and linear expressions fitted to the curve are analyzed and compared with the improved half-wave Fourier method for predicting current parameters. Finally, trend filtering technology is proposed to eliminate high-frequency interference and white noise interference. Th... [more]
32150. LAPSE:2023.7312
Reconfigured Photovoltaic Model to Facilitate Maximum Power Point Tracking for Micro and Nano-Grid Systems
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: array reconfiguration, global maximum power point (GMPP), hill climbing (HC), micro- and nano-grids, photovoltaic (PV), shade faults
PV systems are a popular energy resource, prevalent worldwide; however, shade faults manifested in PV systems limit its power conversion efficiency. The occurrence of multiple power peaks and their location are highly uncertain in PV systems; this necessitates the use of complex maximum power point tracking algorithms to introduce high voltage oscillations. To address this issue, a new reconfigurable PV array to produce a global maximum power point (GMPP) algorithm close to the Voc regions was introduced. This enables the use of a simple Perturb and Observe (P&O) algorithm to easily track GMPP. For reconfiguration, a simple 5 × 5 PV array is considered, and a new physical relocation procedure based on the position square method is proposed. Performance of the proposed reconfiguration model is tested for four various shade events and its row current evaluations are comprehensively analyzed. Furthermore, evaluations of fill factor, mismatch loss, and power loss are quantitatively compare... [more]
32151. LAPSE:2023.7311
Negative Impact Mitigation on the Power Supply System of a Fans Group with Frequency-Variable Drive
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: frequency variable drive, gas cooling plant, harmonic compensation, power quality, power supply system
The technological installations’ characteristics are possible to improve by equipping fans with a frequency-controlled electric drive. However, it can lead to an electromagnetic compatibility problem in the electrical supply system. This problem becomes worse if a large number of fans are included in the technological installation and the electric drives are powered from a substation connected to a limited power source. As an example, in this article we investigate the power supply system of a gas cooling unit with variable-frequency electric drives for fans. The electric drives’ operating mode dependences characterizing the non-sinusoidal voltages and currents of the power source are obtained with the help of simulation modeling in the MATLAB environment with the Simulink expansion package. The typical substation circuit usage for the power supply of a group of fans with a frequency-controlled drive does not meet the requirements of IEEE Standard 519-2014. We can solve the problem of... [more]
32152. LAPSE:2023.7310
Sustainable Governance, Energy Security, and Energy Losses of Europe in Turbulent Times
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: Energy Efficiency, energy losses, energy security, EU, sustainable governance
The article aims to identify the relationship between energy efficiency and particular indicators of energy losses in Europe. The results of the bibliographic analysis showed a knowledge gap in energy losses in Europe regarding the new challenges of energy security. For the analysis, annual panel data from 32 European countries were collected from 1990 to 2019. The authors used the Jarque−Bera test to assess the normality of the residuals, utilized the Breush−Pagan test for heteroskedasticity check, and applied regression analysis to determine the relationship between energy efficiency and energy loss rates in Europe. To assess the effects of energy losses, the authors performed OLS modeling using the stats model’s package in Python. According to the modeling results, an increase in distribution losses (% of available energy from all sources) by 1% in Europe leads to an increase in energy consumption by 17.16% under other constant conditions. There is significant heterogeneity between... [more]
32153. LAPSE:2023.7309
Suitability of Different Machine Learning Outlier Detection Algorithms to Improve Shale Gas Production Data for Effective Decline Curve Analysis
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Information Management
Keywords: Decline Curve Analysis, Machine Learning, outlier detection, production forecast, shale gas
Shale gas reservoirs have huge amounts of reserves. Economically evaluating these reserves is challenging due to complex driving mechanisms, complex drilling and completion configurations, and the complexity of controlling the producing conditions. Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) is historically considered the easiest method for production prediction of unconventional reservoirs as it only requires production history. Besides uncertainties in selecting a suitable DCA model to match the production behavior of the shale gas wells, the production data are usually noisy because of the changing choke size used to control the bottom hole flowing pressure and the multiple shut-ins to remove the associated water. Removing this noise from the data is important for effective DCA prediction. In this study, 12 machine learning outlier detection algorithms were investigated to determine the one most suitable for improving the quality of production data. Five of them were found not suitable, as they re... [more]
32154. LAPSE:2023.7308
Purification of Residual Glycerol from Biodiesel Production as a Value-Added Raw Material for Glycerolysis of Free Fatty Acids in Waste Cooking Oil
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: biodiesel, biofuel, free fatty acid, glycerol, glycerolysis, purification, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, Sustainability, value-added, waste cooking oil
The crude glycerol produced as a byproduct of transesterification synthesis has very few applications because it comprises of significant amounts of methanol, catalyst, and soap. On the other hand, transesterifications of highly acidic oil in the presence of an alkaline catalyst are problematic due to the presence of high amounts of free fatty acids. In this study, the free fatty acid level of high acid oil, which was initially determined to be 19.25%, was decreased to permit the direct production of biodiesel via glycerolysis with pure glycerol, making direct transesterification feasible. Through a process of purification, crude glycerol was refined to 92.5% purity. It was revealed that the physiochemical parameters of density, moisture content, ash content, matter organic non-glycerol content, pH, and Na/K concentrations of generated purified glycerol are equal to those of commercially available glycerol. In contrast, glycerolysis treatment successfully decreased the free fatty acid... [more]
32155. LAPSE:2023.7307
Heat Transfer Intensification in a Heat Exchanger by Means of Twisted Tapes in Rib and Sawtooth Forms
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: aerothermal performance index, friction factor, heat transfer enhancement, swirling flow, twisted tapes in rib and sawtooth form, vortex flow
This experimental study aimed to intensify the aerothermal performance index (API) in a round tube heat exchanger employing twisted tapes in rib and sawtooth forms (TTRSs) as swirl/vortex flow generators. The TTRSs have a constant twist ratio of 3.0, a constant rib pitch ratio (p/e) of 1.0, and six different sawtooth angles (α = 20°, 30°, 40°, 50°, 60°, and 70°). Experiments were carried out in an open flow using air as the working fluid for Reynolds numbers between 6000 and 20,000 in the current study, which was conducted in a heated tube under conditions of uniform wall heat flux. A typical twisted tape (TT) was also tested for comparison. The experimental results suggest that TTRSs yield Nusselt numbers ranging from 1.42 to 2.10 times of those of a plain tube. TTRSs with larger sawtooth angles (α) offer superior heat transfer. The TTRSs with α = 20°, 30°, 40°, 50°, 60°, and 70° respectively, enhance average Nusselt numbers by 158%, 162%, 166%, 172%, 180%, and 187% with average frict... [more]
32156. LAPSE:2023.7306
Energy Intake Models for Intermittent Operation of Dead-End Microfiltration Filling Line
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Operations
Keywords: filter clogging, membrane energy intake, membrane filtration, water hammer effect
In filling lines equipped with membrane separation devices in the form of filters energy, consumption is only one of the important working parameters, the other being sustainable filter performance in terms of separation efficiency. As the filling line is typically equipped with a valve, intermittent operation of the filter is an important form of its use. Whereas the overall energy consumption of the filtration process is governed by the continuous operation mode, the intermittent mode, characterised by opening/closing of the valve, contributes most to problems of filter failure, i.e., the breakthrough of filtered particles through the membrane. A model for determination of the energy intake of a microfiltration membrane during the opening and closing of a valve is presented in this work. The model is based on computational analysis of the pressure wave signals recorded during the opening/closing of the valve using Fourier transform, and expressed in a nondimensional filter area speci... [more]
32157. LAPSE:2023.7305
Interdependence between Energy Cost and Financial Situation of the EU Agricultural Farms—Towards the Implementation of the Bioeconomy
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Food & Agricultural Processes
Keywords: bioeconomy, cost of energy, development, European Union, family farm, financial situation
The concept of a bioeconomy can be an opportunity for agricultural and rural development. The objective of this research is to identify groups of family farms which are able to implement the principles of this new development model based on a bioeconomy and to reduce operating costs, especially energy. The time scope of this study covers the period 2004−2020. The data source is the Farm Accountancy Data Network. On the basis of the values of output, family farm income, cash flow, net investment and total inputs (including energy costs), the classes of family farms are indicated. The ranking is based on geographical criteria and the results of panel data models with fixed effects which measure the relationship between energy costs and production, income, cash flow and net investment according to the economic size of the family farm. The results obtained are discussed within the framework of recommendations of the European Commission.
32158. LAPSE:2023.7304
Simulation Study of the Swirl Spray Atomization of a Bipropellant Thruster under Low Temperature Conditions
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: atomization characteristics, LES, low temperature, MMH, thrusters, VOF
The spray atomization of an injector significantly influences the performance and working life span of a bipropellant thruster of a spacecraft. Deep space exploration requires the thruster to be able to operate reliably at a low temperature range from −40 °C to 0 °C, so the effect of low temperature conditions on the atomization characteristics of injector spray is motivated to be comprehensively investigated. To study the swirl atomization characteristics of MMH (methylhydrazine), which is more difficult to atomize than NTO (nitrogen tetroxide), numerical simulations were conducted, employing the methods of VOF (volume of fluid) and LES (large eddy simulation) under low temperature conditions. The physical model with a nozzle size of 0.5 mm and boundary conditions with a velocity inlet of 3.89 m/s both follow the actual operation of thrusters. The development of spray atomization at low temperatures was observed through parametric comparisons, such as spray velocity, liquid total surf... [more]
32159. LAPSE:2023.7303
Major Challenges towards Energy Management and Power Sharing in a Hybrid AC/DC Microgrid: A Review
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: energy management, hybrid AC/DC microgrid, interlinking converter control, power sharing
A fundamental strategy for utilizing green energy from renewable sources to tackle global warming is the microgrid (MG). Due to the predominance of AC microgrids in the existing power system and the substantial increase in DC power generation and DC load demand, the development of AC/DC hybrid microgrids (HMG) is inevitable. Despite increased theoretical efficiency and minimized AC/DC/AC conversion losses, uncertain loading, grid outages, and intermittent complexion of renewables have increased the complexity, which poses a significant threat toward system stability in an HMG. As a result, the amount of research on the stability, management, and control of HMG is growing exponentially, which makes it imperative to recognize existing problems and emerging trends. In this survey, several strategies from the most recent literature developed to address the challenges of HMG are reviewed. Power flow analysis, power sharing (energy management), local and global control of DGs, and a brief ex... [more]
32160. LAPSE:2023.7302
The Expectations towards Cars to Be Used in Car-Sharing Services—The Perspective of the Current Polish Non-Users
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: car-sharing, e-car-sharing, electric car-sharing, fleet management, shared mobility, sustainable transport systems, transportation engineering
In the era of upcoming European Union regulations limiting the registration of combustion cars from 2035, the development of various types of alternatives to balancing transport is on the agenda of modern cities. One of these types of services includes automated short-term car rental systems, i.e., car-sharing systems. In recent years, car-sharing services have been gaining more and more interest among operators and municipal authorities. Despite their intense activities, there are still people in society who have not used car-sharing services so far. A lot of research has been devoted to an attempt to answer their needs in the field of car-sharing, but there is a research gap in the field of detailed analyses of the fleet of cars that they would like to use. Noticing this niche, this article is dedicated to the topic of selecting vehicles for car-sharing systems from the point of view of current non-users and indicating the features that, in their opinion, are the most important param... [more]
32161. LAPSE:2023.7301
Robust Dynamic Control of Constant-Current-Source-Based Dual-Active-Bridge DC/DC Converter Used for Off-Board EV Charging
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: bidirectional DAB–DC/DC converter, constant-current control, fast dynamic performance, off-board EV charging, Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Due to the high power density, inherent zero-voltage-switching (ZVS), and high voltage-conversation ratio, the current source-based isolated dual-active-bridge DAB−DC/DC converters are extensively used for charging EVs under constant-current mode. However, the fast dynamic response of an output current is a crucial requirement for dual-active-bridge DC/DC converters operating as a constant-current source. This study proposes a fast current controller (FCC) for tracking the desired output current under various input/output parameter disturbances/variations. The proposed control strategy can ensure a fast transient response with negligible overshoot/undershoot for output current during start-up and when there are variations in the load or input voltage. Furthermore, the dynamic behavior of the current control against change in the reference current value has also been improved. A constant-current-based DAB−DC/DC converter is modeled and simulated in MATLAB/Simulink software and a scaled-... [more]
32162. LAPSE:2023.7300
Model-Based Investigations of Porous Si-Based Anodes for Lithium-Ion Batteries with Effects of Volume Changes
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: design space, electrochemical performance, lithium-ion battery, Si-based anode, theoretical model, volume change
The large volume change of Si has been a roadblock in deploying high-capacity Si-based electrodes in lithium-ion batteries, causing salient structural changes and prominent chemo-mechanical coupled degradation. However, the effects of the volume change of Si-based active materials on the structural parameters have not been fully understood, especially for theoretical prediction through fundamental parameters. In this work, we develop a real-time porosity model featuring volume changes of active materials and electrode dimensions for Si-based anodes, predicting the evolution of porosity and electrode dimensions well through the use of basic electrode parameters. The allowable design space of mass fractions of Si is predicted to be lower than 6% for initial porosity in the range of 26−60% based on the permitted limits of maximum volume change of electrode dimensions and minimum porosity at full lithiation. Subsequently, the effects of changes in porosity and electrode dimensions on the g... [more]
32163. LAPSE:2023.7299
Numerical Simulation of the Combination of Novel Spiral Fin and Phase Change Material for Cylindrical Lithium-Ion Batteries in Passive Thermal Management
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: cylindrical battery, phase change material, spiral fin, thermal management
This paper uses ANSYS Fluent to simulate the heat dissipation of a phase change material (PCM)-based cooling system combined with novel spiral fins for a single battery cell. Compared with a circular fin, a spiral fin with the same contact length can reduce the battery temperature by 0.72 °C, and has a superior temperature uniformity. For the PCM-based system with spiral fins, increasing the spiral width from 2 mm to 8 mm can reduce the battery temperature from 41.27 °C to 39.9 °C. As the number of spiral turns increases from two to eight, the maximum temperature rise of the battery shows a downward trend, and six turns can effectively satisfy the heat dissipation requirements of the battery. With respect to the effect of ambient temperature on the cooling performance, the system with a PCM-spiral fin still exhibits optimal cooling effectiveness compared with the pure PCM and PCM-circular systems.
32164. LAPSE:2023.7298
Solar Energy Implementation in Manufacturing Industry Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Fuzzy TOPSIS and S4 Framework
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: fuzzy decision-making, Fuzzy TOPSIS, multi-criteria decision-making, S4 framework, solar energy, solar panel
The demand for electrical energy has increased since the population of and automation in factories have grown. The manufacturing industry has been growing dramatically due to the fast-changing market, so electrical energy for manufacturing processes has increased. As a result, solar energy has been installed to supply electrical energy. Thus, assessing a solar panel company could be a complex task for manufacturing companies that need to assess, install, and operate solar panels when several criteria with different hierarchies from decision-makers are involved. In addition, the stages of a solar panel system could be divided into analysis, installation, operation, and disposal, and all of them must be considered. Thus, the solar panel company must provide a holistic solution for each stage of the solar panel lifespan. This paper provides a fuzzy decision-making approach (Fuzzy TOPSIS) to deal with the assessment of solar companies using the S4 framework in which the sensing, smart, sus... [more]
32165. LAPSE:2023.7297
Impacts of Intake Throttling on the Combustion Characteristics and Emissions of a Light-Duty Diesel Engine under the Idle Mode
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: combustion characteristics, exhaust emissions, intake throttling, light-duty diesel engine
Intake throttling has been verified as an effective approach to increase the exhaust temperature of diesel engines, which could benefit the catalytic efficiency aftertreatment. To better understand the influence of intake throttling on the combustion characteristics and exhaust emissions of light-duty diesel engines operating under idle mode, a light-duty diesel engine was experimentally investigated. This study is a follow-on to previous studies on the effect of throttling on light-duty diesel engine exhaust temperatures and emissions. Tests were conducted at a fixed idle speed of 1100 rpm, and the throttle position and intake manifold air pressure (MAP) were varied. The in-cylinder pressure, pressure rise rate, heat release rate (HRR), in-cylinder temperature, exhaust temperature, and regular gaseous emissions were analyzed. The results indicated that under the influence of intake throttling, the MAP decreased from 101 kPa under wide-open-throttle (WOT) conditions to 52.5 kPa under t... [more]
32166. LAPSE:2023.7296
Method of Qualitative−Environmental Choice of Devices Converting Green Energy
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: decision making, green energy, MAP method, mechanical engineering, price–qualitative analysis, production engineering, RES, Solar Panels, sustainable development
In the plan of the European Green Deal, the European Union assumed that by 2050 Europe will become the first climate-neutral continent in the world. This will be supported by alternative (renewable) energy sources (RESs), also termed green energy (GE). Their use should have long-term environmental benefits. To do this, it is necessary to skillfully select RES products. Therefore, the purpose is to develop a method for selecting devices that convert to GE, including not only qualitative criteria, but also environmental criteria and their price. The method is based on customer requirements and expert knowledge. The general concept of the method allows for the assessment of selected qualitative and environmental criteria of products and determining the price of purchase of these products. In a hybrid way, the following techniques were used: SMARTER method, brainstorming (BM), MAP method (alternative-punctual Czechowski’ method), ACJ method (price−qualitative analysis). Based on the result... [more]
32167. LAPSE:2023.7295
Flat Unglazed Transpired Solar Collector: Performance Probability Prediction Approach Using Monte Carlo Simulation Technique
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, probability prediction, solar energy, unglazed transpired solar collector (UTC)
Engineering applications including food processing, wastewater treatment, home heating, commercial heating, and institutional heating successfully use unglazed transpired solar collectors (UTCs). Trapping of solar energy is the prime goal of developing an unglazed transpired solar collector. The UTC is usually developed in and around the walls of the building and absorbs the solar energy to heat the air. One of the key challenges faced by the UTC designer is the prediction of performance and its warranty under uncertain operating conditions of flow variables. Some of the flow features are the velocity distribution, plate temperature, exit temperature and perforation location. The objective of the present study was to establish correlations among these flow features and demonstrate a method of predicting the performance of the UTC. Hence, a correlation matrix was generated from the dataset prepared after solving the airflow over a perforated flat UTC. Further, both strong and weak corre... [more]
32168. LAPSE:2023.7294
Short-Term and Medium-Term Electricity Sales Forecasting Method Based on Deep Spatio-Temporal Residual Network
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: convolutional neural network, electricity sales forecasting, external factors, short- and medium-term forecasting, spatio-temporal data, ST-ResNet
The forecasting of electricity sales is directly related to the power generation planning of power enterprises and the progress of the generation tasks. Aiming at the problem that traditional forecasting methods cannot properly deal with the actual data offset caused by external factors, such as the weather, season, and spatial attributes, this paper proposes a method of electricity sales forecasting based on a deep spatio-temporal residual network (ST-ResNet). The method not only relies on the temporal correlation of electricity sales data but also introduces the influence of external factors and spatial correlation, which greatly enhances the fitting degree of each parameter of the model. Moreover, the residual module and the convolution module are fused to effectively reduce the damage of the deep convolutional process to the training effectiveness. Finally, the three comparison experiments of the ultra-short term, short term and medium term show that the MAPE forecasted by the ST-R... [more]
32169. LAPSE:2023.7293
Numerical Study on Hydraulic Fracture Propagation in a Layered Continental Shale Reservoir
February 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: bedding, fracture height growth, hydraulic fracturing, shale reservoir
The distribution of beddings varies greatly in shale reservoirs. The influence of beddings on hydraulic fracture propagation has often been studied using simplified geological models, i.e., uniformly distributed bedding models. However, the propagation processes of hydraulic fractures in shale reservoirs with complicated distributed beddings remains unclear. In this research, an outcrop-data-based bedding model of a continental shale formation in the Ordos Basin, China, is built. A mathematical model for fracture propagation is built using the discrete element method and is then verified by a hydraulic fracturing experiment. Reservoir-scale simulations are employed to investigate the influence of geological factors and engineering factors on fracture geometry. The study finds that beddings have significant inhibitory effects on fracture height growth; hydraulic fractures have difficulty in breaking through zones with densely distributed beddings. If a hydraulic fracture encounters a be... [more]
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