Proceedings of ESCAPE 36ISSN: 2818-4734
Volume: 5 (2026)
Table of Contents
LAPSE:2026.0319
Published Article
LAPSE:2026.0319
An Adaptive Framework for Robust Energy Forecasting under Concept Drift and Feature Uncertainty
June 12, 2026
Abstract
The rapid integration of renewable energy sources is increasing the volatility and non-stationarity of modern power systems, posing significant challenges for data-driven forecasting models. In particular, concept drift and uncertainty in exogenous inputs such as weather forecasts can severely degrade predictive performance over time. This work proposes a lightweight two-layer forecasting framework that decouples prediction from adaptation. A traditional offline regression model is augmented by an online meta-learner that continuously generates adaptive meta-features, enabling the system to respond to structural changes and noisy inputs without repeated retraining. The framework is evaluated on two real-world case studies. First, concept drift is addressed in nuclear power production forecasting, where abrupt and gradual capacity changes are inferred through an online meta-learner. Second, feature uncertainty is mitigated in day-ahead solar production forecasting by correcting noisy weather forecast inputs. Across both scenarios, the proposed approach consistently outperforms single-layer baselines, reducing root mean squared error by up to 10% and maintaining robust performance over multi-year horizons without retraining. The results demonstrate that meta-learning provides a practical and computationally efficient mechanism for improving forecast robustness in non-stationary energy systems, with applicability to a wide range of power-system forecasting problems.
Suggested Citation
Marcato F, Santecchia A, Oliveira MRD, Silvestri F, Castro-Amoedo R. An Adaptive Framework for Robust Energy Forecasting under Concept Drift and Feature Uncertainty. Systems and Control Transactions 5:934-942 (2026) https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.165630
Author Affiliations
Marcato F: Emissium Labs Unipessoal LDA, Alcácer do Sal, Portugal [ORCID]
Santecchia A: Emissium Labs Unipessoal LDA, Alcácer do Sal, Portugal [ORCID]
Oliveira MRD: Emissium Labs Unipessoal LDA, Alcácer do Sal, Portugal [ORCID]
Silvestri F: AIDA Lab (Algorithms for Intelligent Data Analytics), Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova [ORCID]
Castro-Amoedo R: Centro de Recursos Naturais e Ambiente (CERENA), Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal; [ORCID]
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Journal Name
Systems and Control Transactions
Volume
5
First Page
934
Last Page
942
Year
2026
Publication Date
2026-06-12
Version Comments
Original Submission
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PII: 0934-0942-77-SCT-5-2026, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2026.0319
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https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.165630
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References Cited
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