LAPSE:2023.35665
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.35665
Estimating the Performance Loss Rate of Photovoltaic Systems Using Time Series Change Point Analysis
May 23, 2023
The accurate quantification of the performance loss rate of photovoltaic systems is critical for project economics. Following the current research activities in the photovoltaic performance and reliability field, this work presents a comparative assessment between common change point methods for performance loss rate estimation of fielded photovoltaic installations. An extensive testing campaign was thus performed to evaluate time series analysis approaches for performance loss rate evaluation of photovoltaic systems. Historical electrical data from eleven photovoltaic systems installed in Nicosia, Cyprus, and the locations’ meteorological measurements over a period of 8 years were used for this investigation. The application of change point detection algorithms on the constructed monthly photovoltaic performance ratio series revealed that the obtained trend might not always be linear. Specifically, thin film photovoltaic systems showed nonlinear behavior, while nonlinearities were also detected for some crystalline silicon photovoltaic systems. When applying several change point techniques, different numbers and locations of changes were detected, resulting in different performance loss rate values (varying by up to 0.85%/year even for the same number of change points). The results highlighted the importance of the application of nonlinear techniques and the need to extract a robust nonlinear model for detecting significant changes in time series data and estimating accurately the performance loss rate of photovoltaic installations.
Keywords
change point techniques, Modelling, nonlinear degradation, performance loss rate, photovoltaics
Suggested Citation
Livera A, Tziolis G, Theristis M, Stein JS, Georghiou GE. Estimating the Performance Loss Rate of Photovoltaic Systems Using Time Series Change Point Analysis. (2023). LAPSE:2023.35665
Author Affiliations
Livera A: PV Technology Laboratory, FOSS Research Centre for Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Cyprus, Nicosia 1678, Cyprus [ORCID]
Tziolis G: PV Technology Laboratory, FOSS Research Centre for Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Cyprus, Nicosia 1678, Cyprus [ORCID]
Theristis M: Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185, USA [ORCID]
Stein JS: Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185, USA
Georghiou GE: PV Technology Laboratory, FOSS Research Centre for Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Cyprus, Nicosia 1678, Cyprus [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
16
Issue
9
First Page
3724
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-04-26
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: en16093724, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.35665
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doi:10.3390/en16093724
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May 23, 2023
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CC BY 4.0
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May 23, 2023
 
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May 23, 2023
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Calvin Tsay
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