Abstract
Stability and reliability are of the most important concern for isolated microgrid systems that have no support from the utility grid. Interval predictions are often applied to ensure the system stability of isolated microgrids as they cover more uncertainties and robust control can be achieved based on more sufficient information. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic microgrid energy exchange method based on the Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach to make better use of the prediction intervals so that the system stability and cost efficiency of isolated microgrids are improved simultaneously. Appropriate scenarios are selected from the predictions according to the evaluation of future trends and system capacity. In the meantime, a two-stage adaptive reserve strategy is adopted to further utilize the potential of interval predictions and maintain the system security adaptively. Reserves are determined at the optimization stage to prepare some extra capacity for the fluctuations in the renewable generation and load demand at the operation stage based on the aggressive and conservative level of the system, which is automatically updated at each step. The optimal dispatch problem is finally formulated using the mixed-integer linear programming model and the MPC is formulated as an optimization problem with a discount factor introduced to adjust the weights. Case studies show that the proposed method could effectively guarantee the stability of the system and improve economic performance.