LAPSE:2023.35745
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.35745
Construction of Mixed Derivatives Strategy for Wind Power Producers
May 23, 2023
Due to the inherent uncertainty of wind conditions as well as the price unpredictability in the competitive electricity market, wind power producers are exposed to the risk of concurrent fluctuations in both price and volume. Therefore, it is imperative to develop strategies to effectively stabilize their revenues, or cash flows, when trading wind power output in the electricity market. In light of this context, we present a novel endeavor to construct multivariate derivatives for mitigating the risk of fluctuating cash flows that are associated with trading wind power generation in electricity markets. Our approach involves leveraging nonparametric techniques to identify optimal payoff structures or compute the positions of derivatives with fine granularity, utilizing multiple underlying indexes including spot electricity price, area-wide wind power production index, and local wind conditions. These derivatives, referred to as mixed derivatives, offer advantages in terms of hedge effectiveness and contracting efficiency. Notably, we develop a methodology to enhance the hedge effects by modeling multivariate functions of wind speed and wind direction, incorporating periodicity constraints on wind direction via tensor product spline functions. By conducting an empirical analysis using data from Japan, we elucidate the extent to which the hedge effectiveness is improved by constructing mixed derivatives from various perspectives. Furthermore, we compare the hedge performance between high-granular (hourly) and low-granular (daily) formulations, revealing the advantages of utilizing a high-granular hedging approach.
Keywords
hedging, mixed derivatives, nonparametric regressions, wind power producers
Suggested Citation
Yamada Y, Matsumoto T. Construction of Mixed Derivatives Strategy for Wind Power Producers. (2023). LAPSE:2023.35745
Author Affiliations
Yamada Y: Faculty of Business Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tokyo 112-0012, Japan [ORCID]
Matsumoto T: Faculty of Transdisciplinary Sciences for Innovation, Kanazawa University, Ishikawa 920-1192, Japan [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
16
Issue
9
First Page
3809
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-04-28
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: en16093809, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.35745
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doi:10.3390/en16093809
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May 23, 2023
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CC BY 4.0
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May 23, 2023
 
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Original Submitter
Calvin Tsay
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