LAPSE:2023.35644
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.35644
Integrating Survival Analysis with Bayesian Statistics to Forecast the Remaining Useful Life of a Centrifugal Pump Conditional to Multiple Fault Types
May 23, 2023
To improve the viability of nuclear power plants, there is a need to reduce their operational costs. Operational costs account for a significant portion of a plant’s yearly budget, due to their scheduled-based maintenance approach. In order to reduce these costs, proactive methods are required that estimate and forecast the state of a machine in real time to optimize maintenance schedules. In this research, we use Bayesian networks to develop a framework that can forecast the remaining useful life of a centrifugal pump. To do so, we integrate survival analysis with Bayesian statistics to forecast the health of the pump conditional to its current state. We complete our research by successfully using the Bayesian network on a case study. This solution provides an informed probabilistic viewpoint of the pumping system for the purpose of predictive maintenance.
Keywords
Bayesian networks, condition monitoring, fault analysis, Machine Learning, probabilistic estimation, remaining useful life, survival analysis, vibration analysis
Suggested Citation
Kapuria A, Cole DG. Integrating Survival Analysis with Bayesian Statistics to Forecast the Remaining Useful Life of a Centrifugal Pump Conditional to Multiple Fault Types. (2023). LAPSE:2023.35644
Author Affiliations
Kapuria A: Swanson School of Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA [ORCID]
Cole DG: Swanson School of Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
16
Issue
9
First Page
3707
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-04-26
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: en16093707, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.35644
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doi:10.3390/en16093707
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May 23, 2023
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CC BY 4.0
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[v1] (Original Submission)
May 23, 2023
 
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May 23, 2023
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https://psecommunity.org/LAPSE:2023.35644
 
Original Submitter
Calvin Tsay
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