LAPSE:2023.35590
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.35590
Interpretable Predictive Modeling of Tight Gas Well Productivity with SHAP and LIME Techniques
Xianlin Ma, Mengyao Hou, Jie Zhan, Zhenzhi Liu
May 23, 2023
Accurately predicting well productivity is crucial for optimizing gas production and maximizing recovery from tight gas reservoirs. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been applied to build predictive models for the well productivity, but their high complexity and low interpretability can hinder their practical application. This study proposes using interpretable ML solutions, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), to provide explicit explanations of the ML prediction model. The study uses data from the Eastern Sulige tight gas field in the Ordos Basin, China, containing various geological and engineering factors. The results show that the gradient boosting decision tree model exhibits superior predictive performance compared to other ML models. The global interpretation using SHAP provides insights into the overall impact of these factors, while the local interpretation using SHAP and LIME offers individualized explanations of well productivity predictions. These results can facilitate improvements in well operations and field development planning, providing a better understanding of the underlying physical processes and supporting more informed and effective decision-making. Ultimately, this study demonstrates the potential of interpretable ML solutions to address the challenges of forecasting well productivity in tight gas reservoirs and enable more efficient and sustainable gas production.
Keywords
interpretability, LIME, Machine Learning, SHAP, well productivity
Suggested Citation
Ma X, Hou M, Zhan J, Liu Z. Interpretable Predictive Modeling of Tight Gas Well Productivity with SHAP and LIME Techniques. (2023). LAPSE:2023.35590
Author Affiliations
Ma X: College of Petroleum Engineering, Xi’an Shiyou University, Xi’an 710065, China [ORCID]
Hou M: College of Petroleum Engineering, Xi’an Shiyou University, Xi’an 710065, China
Zhan J: College of Petroleum Engineering, Xi’an Shiyou University, Xi’an 710065, China
Liu Z: College of Petroleum Engineering, Xi’an Shiyou University, Xi’an 710065, China
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
16
Issue
9
First Page
3653
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-04-24
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en16093653, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.35590
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doi:10.3390/en16093653
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May 23, 2023
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CC BY 4.0
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[v1] (Original Submission)
May 23, 2023
 
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Calvin Tsay
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