LAPSE:2023.34216
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.34216
A Novel Accurate and Fast Converging Deep Learning-Based Model for Electrical Energy Consumption Forecasting in a Smart Grid
Ghulam Hafeez, Khurram Saleem Alimgeer, Zahid Wadud, Zeeshan Shafiq, Mohammad Usman Ali Khan, Imran Khan, Farrukh Aslam Khan, Abdelouahid Derhab
April 25, 2023
Energy consumption forecasting is of prime importance for the restructured environment of energy management in the electricity market. Accurate energy consumption forecasting is essential for efficient energy management in the smart grid (SG); however, the energy consumption pattern is non-linear with a high level of uncertainty and volatility. Forecasting such complex patterns requires accurate and fast forecasting models. In this paper, a novel hybrid electrical energy consumption forecasting model is proposed based on a deep learning model known as factored conditional restricted Boltzmann machine (FCRBM). The deep learning-based FCRBM model uses a rectified linear unit (ReLU) activation function and a multivariate autoregressive technique for the network training. The proposed model predicts future electrical energy consumption for efficient energy management in the SG. The proposed model is a novel hybrid model comprising four modules: (i) data processing and features selection module, (ii) deep learning-based FCRBM forecasting module, (iii) genetic wind driven optimization (GWDO) algorithm-based optimization module, and (iv) utilization module. The proposed hybrid model, called FS-FCRBM-GWDO, is tested and evaluated on real power grid data of USA in terms of four performance metrics: mean absolute percentage deviation (MAPD), variance, correlation coefficient, and convergence rate. Simulation results validate that the proposed hybrid FS-FCRBM-GWDO model has superior performance than existing models such as accurate fast converging short-term load forecasting (AFC-STLF) model, mutual information-modified enhanced differential evolution algorithm-artificial neural network (MI-mEDE-ANN)-based model, features selection-ANN (FS-ANN)-based model, and Bi-level model, in terms of forecast accuracy and convergence rate.
Keywords
deep learning, electric energy consumption forecasting, factored conditional restricted Boltzmann machine, heuristic optimization algorithm, modified feature selection technique, rectified linear unit, smart grid
Suggested Citation
Hafeez G, Alimgeer KS, Wadud Z, Shafiq Z, Ali Khan MU, Khan I, Khan FA, Derhab A. A Novel Accurate and Fast Converging Deep Learning-Based Model for Electrical Energy Consumption Forecasting in a Smart Grid. (2023). LAPSE:2023.34216
Author Affiliations
Hafeez G: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, COMSATS University Islamabad, Islamabad Campus 44000, Pakistan; Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Mardan 23200, Pakistan [ORCID]
Alimgeer KS: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, COMSATS University Islamabad, Islamabad Campus 44000, Pakistan [ORCID]
Wadud Z: Department of Computer Systems Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar, Peshawar 25000, Pakistan
Shafiq Z: Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Mardan 23200, Pakistan
Ali Khan MU: Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar, Peshawar 25000, Pakistan
Khan I: Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Mardan 23200, Pakistan [ORCID]
Khan FA: Center of Excellence in Information Assurance, King Saud University, Riyadh 11653, Saudi Arabia [ORCID]
Derhab A: Center of Excellence in Information Assurance, King Saud University, Riyadh 11653, Saudi Arabia [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
13
Issue
9
Article Number
E2244
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-05-03
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en13092244, Publication Type: Journal Article
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doi:10.3390/en13092244
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Apr 25, 2023
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