LAPSE:2023.32028
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.32028
The Cost of Photovoltaic Forecasting Errors in Microgrid Control with Peak Pricing
April 19, 2023
Model predictive control (MPC) is widely used for microgrids or unit commitment due to its ability to respect the forecasts of loads and generation of renewable energies. However, while there are lots of approaches to accounting for uncertainties in these forecasts, their impact is rarely analyzed systematically. Here, we use a simplified linear state space model of a commercial building including a photovoltaic (PV) plant and real-world data from a 30 day period in 2020. PV predictions are derived from weather forecasts and industry peak pricing is assumed. The effect of prediction accuracy on the resulting cost is evaluated by multiple simulations with different prediction errors and initial conditions. Analysis shows a mainly linear correlation, while the exact shape depends on the treatment of predictions at the current time step. Furthermore, despite a time horizon of 24h, only the prediction accuracy of the first 75min was relevant for the presented setting.
Keywords
energy management, Model Predictive Control, PARODIS
Suggested Citation
Schmitt T, Rodemann T, Adamy J. The Cost of Photovoltaic Forecasting Errors in Microgrid Control with Peak Pricing. (2023). LAPSE:2023.32028
Author Affiliations
Schmitt T: Control Methods & Robotics Lab, Technical University of Darmstadt, 64289 Darmstadt, Germany [ORCID]
Rodemann T: Honda Research Institute Europe GmbH, 63073 Offenbach am Main, Germany [ORCID]
Adamy J: Control Methods & Robotics Lab, Technical University of Darmstadt, 64289 Darmstadt, Germany [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
9
First Page
2569
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-04-29
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en14092569, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.32028
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doi:10.3390/en14092569
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Apr 19, 2023
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