LAPSE:2023.31655
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.31655
Deep Learning-Based Approaches to Optimize the Electricity Contract Capacity Problem for Commercial Customers
Rafik Nafkha, Tomasz Ząbkowski, Krzysztof Gajowniczek
April 19, 2023
The electricity tariffs available to customers in Poland depend on the connection voltage level and contracted capacity, which reflect the customer demand profile. Therefore, before connecting to the power grid, each consumer declares the demand for maximum power. This amount, referred to as the contracted capacity, is used by the electricity provider to assign the proper connection type to the power grid, including the size of the security breaker. Maximum power is also the basis for calculating fixed charges for electricity consumption, which is controlled and metered through peak meters. If the peak demand exceeds the contracted capacity, a penalty charge is applied to the exceeded amount, which is up to ten times the basic rate. In this article, we present several solutions for entrepreneurs based on the implementation of two-stage and deep learning approaches to predict maximal load values and the moments of exceeding the contracted capacity in the short term, i.e., up to one month ahead. The forecast is further used to optimize the capacity volume to be contracted in the following month to minimize network charge for exceeding the contracted level. As confirmed experimentally with two datasets, the application of a multiple output forecast artificial neural network model and a genetic algorithm (two-stage approach) for load optimization delivers significant benefits to customers. As an alternative, the same benefit is delivered with a deep learning architecture (hybrid approach) to predict the maximal capacity demands and, simultaneously, to determine the optimal capacity contract.
Keywords
contracted capacity, deep learning, electricity load time series forecasting, Genetic Algorithm, Optimization
Suggested Citation
Nafkha R, Ząbkowski T, Gajowniczek K. Deep Learning-Based Approaches to Optimize the Electricity Contract Capacity Problem for Commercial Customers. (2023). LAPSE:2023.31655
Author Affiliations
Nafkha R: Department of Artificial Intelligence, Institute of Information Technology, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland
Ząbkowski T: Department of Artificial Intelligence, Institute of Information Technology, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland
Gajowniczek K: Department of Artificial Intelligence, Institute of Information Technology, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
8
First Page
2181
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-04-14
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en14082181, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.31655
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doi:10.3390/en14082181
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Apr 19, 2023
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