LAPSE:2023.26118
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.26118
Predicting Renewable Energy Investment Using Machine Learning
Govinda Hosein, Patrick Hosein, Sanjay Bahadoorsingh, Robert Martinez, Chandrabhan Sharma
March 31, 2023
In order to combat climate change, many countries have promised to bolster Renewable Energy (RE) production following the Paris Agreement with some countries even setting a goal of 100% by 2025. The reasons are twofold: capitalizing on carbon emissions whilst concomitantly benefiting from reduced fossil fuel dependence and the fluctuations associated with imported fuel prices. However, numerous countries have not yet made preparations to increase RE production and integration. In many instances, this reluctance seems to be predominant in energy-rich countries, which typically provide heavy subsidies on electricity prices. With such subsidies, there is no incentive to invest in RE since the time taken to recoup such investments would be significant. We develop a model using a Neural Network (NN) regression algorithm to quantitatively illustrate this conjecture and also use it to predict the reduction in electricity price subsidies required to achieve a specified RE production target. The model was trained using 10 leading metrics from 53 countries. It is envisaged that policymakers and researchers can use this model to plan future RE targets to satisfy the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and determine the required electricity subsidy reductions. The model can easily be modified to predict what changes in other country factors can be made to stimulate growth in RE production. We illustrate this approach with a sample use case.
Keywords
electricity pricing, energy policy, Machine Learning, neural network, regression, Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Suggested Citation
Hosein G, Hosein P, Bahadoorsingh S, Martinez R, Sharma C. Predicting Renewable Energy Investment Using Machine Learning. (2023). LAPSE:2023.26118
Author Affiliations
Hosein G: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
Hosein P: Department of Computer Science, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago [ORCID]
Bahadoorsingh S: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago [ORCID]
Martinez R: National Institute of Higher Education, Research Science and Technology, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago
Sharma C: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
13
Issue
17
Article Number
E4494
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-08-31
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en13174494, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.26118
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doi:10.3390/en13174494
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Mar 31, 2023
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CC BY 4.0
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