LAPSE:2023.13206
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.13206
A Novel Virtual Power Plant Uncertainty Modeling Framework Using Unscented Transform
February 28, 2023
This paper proposes a new strategy for modeling predictability uncertainty in a stochastic context for decision making within a Virtual Power Plant (VPP). Modeling variable renewable energy generation is an essential step for effective VPP planning and operation. However, it is also a challenging task due to the uncertain nature of its sources. Therefore, developing tools to effectively predict these uncertainties is essential for the optimal participation of VPPs in the electricity market. The purpose of this paper is to present a novel method to model the uncertainties associated with energy dispatching in a VPP using the Unscented Transform (UT) method. The proposed algorithm minimizes the risks associated with the VPP operation in a computationally efficient and simple manner, and can be used in real-time on a power system. The proposed framework was evaluated based on an Electric Power System (EPS) model with historical data. Case studies have been performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in minimizing power demand and renewable-energy-forecasting uncertainty for a VPP.
Keywords
forecast uncertainty, unscented transform, virtual power plant
Suggested Citation
Ramos LF, Canha LN, Prado JCD, de Menezes LRAX. A Novel Virtual Power Plant Uncertainty Modeling Framework Using Unscented Transform. (2023). LAPSE:2023.13206
Author Affiliations
Ramos LF: Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of Rondônia, Porto Velho 76801-059, Brazil [ORCID]
Canha LN: Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering, Federal University of Santa Maria, Santa Maria 97105-900, Brazil [ORCID]
Prado JCD: School of Engineering and Computer Science, Washington State University, Vancouver, WA 98686, USA [ORCID]
de Menezes LRAX: Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Brasilia, Brasilia 70910-900, Brazil [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
10
First Page
3716
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-05-19
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en15103716, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.13206
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doi:10.3390/en15103716
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Feb 28, 2023
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