LAPSE:2021.0751
Published Article
LAPSE:2021.0751
Modeling the Spread of Epidemics Based on Cellular Automata
Jindong Dai, Chi Zhai, Jiali Ai, Jiaying Ma, Jingde Wang, Wei Sun
October 11, 2021
Mathematical modeling is a powerful tool to study the process of the spread of infectious diseases. Among various mathematical methods for describing the spread of infectious diseases, the cellular automaton makes it possible to explicitly simulate both the spatial and temporal evolution of epidemics with intuitive local rules. In this paper, a model is proposed and realized on a cellular automata platform, which is applied to simulate the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) for different administrative districts. A simplified social community is considered with varying parameters, e.g., sex ratio, age structure, population movement, incubation and treatment period, immunity, etc. COVID-19 confirmation data from New York City and Iowa are adopted for model validation purpose. It can be observed that the disease exhibits different spread patterns in different cities, which could be well accommodated by this model. Then, scenarios under different control strategies in the next 100 days in Iowa are simulated, which could provide a valuable reference for decision makers in identifying the critical factors for future infection control in Iowa.
Keywords
cellular automata, dynamic simulation, mathematical model, process system engineering
Suggested Citation
Dai J, Zhai C, Ai J, Ma J, Wang J, Sun W. Modeling the Spread of Epidemics Based on Cellular Automata. (2021). LAPSE:2021.0751
Author Affiliations
Dai J: College of Chemical Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Zhai C: Faculty of Chemical Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China [ORCID]
Ai J: College of Chemical Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Ma J: College of Chemical Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Wang J: College of Chemical Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Sun W: College of Chemical Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China [ORCID]
Journal Name
Processes
Volume
9
Issue
1
First Page
pr9010055
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-12-29
Published Version
ISSN
2227-9717
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Original Submission
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PII: pr9010055, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2021.0751
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doi:10.3390/pr9010055
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Oct 11, 2021
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[v1] (Original Submission)
Oct 11, 2021
 
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Oct 11, 2021
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Calvin Tsay
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