Abstract
Process modeling in pharma is gradually gaining momentum in process development but budget restrictions are growing. We first examine whether and how current practices rationalize within a decision process framework with a fictitious investor facing a decision problem subject to incomplete information. We then develop an algorithmic procedure for investment evaluation on both monetary and diffusion-of-innovation fronts. Our methodology builds upon discounted cash flow analysis and Bayesian inference and utilizes the Rogers diffusion of innovation paradigm for computing lower expected returns. We also introduce a set of intangible metrics for quantifying the level of diffusion of process modeling within an organization.