Abstract
More than 1.2 billion kW wind and solar power generation will be integrated in China by 2030. The new provincial renewable portfolio standard, officially implemented in 2020, establishes an efficient bridge between rapid capacity growth and limited accommodation capability. A data-driven prospect analysis framework was proposed to evaluate the activated potential under two kinds of nearby accommodation approaches and to explore the completion prospect of this new obligated quota from provincial levels. Empirical results illustrate diverse prospects across regions. Particularly, it is hard for two kinds of provinces to complete their obligated quotas merely via the single nearby accommodation approach: The first one is close to renewable energy resources but lacks flexible peak regulation capability in Northeast and Northwest China, and the other is close to the nationwide load center but lacks nearby integration from renewables in Southeast, North, and Middle China. Therefore, the pathway for the former is to activate more provincial accommodation potential either via releasing system flexibility or by substituting generation right, and the pathway for the latter is to introduce trans-regional or trans-provincial accommodation and import more renewable energy power.