Abstract
The need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is driving many actions to decarbonize the most impactful sectors. Among these, the energy sector accounts for almost one third of emissions. Increasing the penetration of renewable energy in the energy mix could easily reduce the emissions of this sector. Theoretically, the target to aim for would be 100% renewable energy production. However, the variable nature of power production from photovoltaic and wind systems, which are expected to play a key role in the energy transition, may pose several limitations to the effective penetration of renewable energy. Many concerns arise when one considers the large diffusion of renewable energy that would be required to meet green targets, and the operating conditions of other systems in charge of compensating for renewable energy variations. This study aims to investigate the potential impact of an increase in the amount of renewable energy installed in a country, particularly in Italy. A simplified approach has been used, based on the assumption of knowing the hourly demand and power generation mix, and multiplying the intermittent power generation by a certain factor. Although not accurate, this approach allows the authors to highlight some critical aspects regarding the potential surplus of renewable energy and the operating conditions of other energy sources. The results of this study may provide a useful basis for a preliminary system evaluation, in particular to assess the feasibility of surplus recovery and the operability of residual generation systems. In addition, it may be easily replicated in other countries for similar estimations.