LAPSE:2026.0509
Published Article

LAPSE:2026.0509
Forecasting Time-to-Cyclic Steady State in Periodic Bioprocesses via a Multi-Feature k-Nearest Neighbours Framework
June 12, 2026
Abstract
Early and reliable prediction of convergence to cyclic steady state (CSS) is increasingly important in periodic downstream bioprocessing, where switching and cut decisions are tuned for a repeatable cyclic regime. This work addresses time-to-CSS (TCSS) forecasting and CSS-existence classification for multicolumn countercurrent solvent gradient purification (MCSGP) systems under run-to-run feed variability. We propose a Multi-Feature k-Nearest Neighbours (MF-kNN) framework that performs long-horizon one-shot trajectory forecasting from an early run segment. CSS outcomes are inferred by reapplying a peak-based convergence rule to the predicted trajectory, while CSS existence is predicted via neighbour-label voting. The approach uses multivariate, standardised features, run-level splits, and a windowed neighbour search to reduce computation. Hyperparameters are tuned with a CSS-oriented objective function that balances trajectory fidelity, TCSS error, and misclassification penalties. On an in-silico MCSGP dataset (98 runs; ?t = 0.2 s; 6800 steps/run) with varying initial modifier concentration, MF-kNN produces accurate full-run forecasts from early data and enables operationally useful early go/no-go decisions. Across outlets, results support accurate CSS timing inference and high CSS-existence classification accuracy (up to 100% on selected outlets), indicating MF-kNN as a transparent and deployment-ready complement to cycle-to-cycle CSS monitoring and control.
Early and reliable prediction of convergence to cyclic steady state (CSS) is increasingly important in periodic downstream bioprocessing, where switching and cut decisions are tuned for a repeatable cyclic regime. This work addresses time-to-CSS (TCSS) forecasting and CSS-existence classification for multicolumn countercurrent solvent gradient purification (MCSGP) systems under run-to-run feed variability. We propose a Multi-Feature k-Nearest Neighbours (MF-kNN) framework that performs long-horizon one-shot trajectory forecasting from an early run segment. CSS outcomes are inferred by reapplying a peak-based convergence rule to the predicted trajectory, while CSS existence is predicted via neighbour-label voting. The approach uses multivariate, standardised features, run-level splits, and a windowed neighbour search to reduce computation. Hyperparameters are tuned with a CSS-oriented objective function that balances trajectory fidelity, TCSS error, and misclassification penalties. On an in-silico MCSGP dataset (98 runs; ?t = 0.2 s; 6800 steps/run) with varying initial modifier concentration, MF-kNN produces accurate full-run forecasts from early data and enables operationally useful early go/no-go decisions. Across outlets, results support accurate CSS timing inference and high CSS-existence classification accuracy (up to 100% on selected outlets), indicating MF-kNN as a transparent and deployment-ready complement to cycle-to-cycle CSS monitoring and control.
Record ID
Keywords
cyclic steady state, k-nearest neighbours, MCSGP, one-shot forecasting, periodic bioprocessing, time-to-CSS forecasting
Subject
Suggested Citation
Algoufily Y, Michalopoulou F, Papathanasiou MM, Mercangöz M. Forecasting Time-to-Cyclic Steady State in Periodic Bioprocesses via a Multi-Feature k-Nearest Neighbours Framework. Systems and Control Transactions 5:2449-2456 (2026) https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.131945
Author Affiliations
Algoufily Y: Imperial College London, Department of Chemical Engineering, London, United Kingdom. Sargent Center for Process Systems Engineering, London, United Kingdom [ORCID]
Michalopoulou F: Imperial College London, Department of Chemical Engineering, London, United Kingdom. Sargent Center for Process Systems Engineering, London, United Kingdom [ORCID]
Papathanasiou MM: Imperial College London, Department of Chemical Engineering, London, United Kingdom. Sargent Center for Process Systems Engineering, London, United Kingdom [ORCID]
Mercangöz M: Imperial College London, Department of Chemical Engineering, London, United Kingdom. Sargent Center for Process Systems Engineering, London, United Kingdom [ORCID]
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Michalopoulou F: Imperial College London, Department of Chemical Engineering, London, United Kingdom. Sargent Center for Process Systems Engineering, London, United Kingdom [ORCID]
Papathanasiou MM: Imperial College London, Department of Chemical Engineering, London, United Kingdom. Sargent Center for Process Systems Engineering, London, United Kingdom [ORCID]
Mercangöz M: Imperial College London, Department of Chemical Engineering, London, United Kingdom. Sargent Center for Process Systems Engineering, London, United Kingdom [ORCID]
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Journal Name
Systems and Control Transactions
Volume
5
First Page
2449
Last Page
2456
Year
2026
Publication Date
2026-06-12
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: 2449-2456-214-SCT-5-2026, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2026.0509
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https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.131945
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References Cited
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