LAPSE:2026.0306
Published Article

LAPSE:2026.0306
Model Screening and Identifiability Analysis of Methanol Synthesis Kinetics: Information-Guided Evaluation of Operating Conditions
June 12, 2026
Abstract
Reliable kinetic models are essential for the design, optimisation and operation of methanol synthesis reactors in power-to-X applications. However, parameter estimation is frequently performed without prior assessment of parametric identifiability or the information content of experimental conditions, often resulting in poorly constrained parameters and inefficient experimental campaigns. This study introduces a systematic, pre-calibration, information-driven framework for identifiability analysis and experimental design. The framework integrates local sensitivity analysis, structural and practical identifiability metrics and a Sequential Information-Driven Experimental Selection (SIDeS) strategy to guide experiment selection prior to parameter estimation. The methodology is applied to four literature kinetic models for methanol synthesis, spanning varying levels of mechanistic detail. A Sobol-sampled design space is first screened for feasibility and local information content, followed by cumulative Fisher information analysis. Results demonstrate that conventional screening campaigns provide limited gains in parameter precision, whereas SIDeS identify compact experimental sequences that significantly improve practical identifiability within a constrained experimental budget. Cross-model comparison reveals that increased mechanistic description does not necessarily translate to improved identifiability under fixed experimental resources. The proposed framework supports informed model selection, reduces unnecessary calibration effort, and provides actionable design-of-experiments recommendations for methanol synthesis systems.
Reliable kinetic models are essential for the design, optimisation and operation of methanol synthesis reactors in power-to-X applications. However, parameter estimation is frequently performed without prior assessment of parametric identifiability or the information content of experimental conditions, often resulting in poorly constrained parameters and inefficient experimental campaigns. This study introduces a systematic, pre-calibration, information-driven framework for identifiability analysis and experimental design. The framework integrates local sensitivity analysis, structural and practical identifiability metrics and a Sequential Information-Driven Experimental Selection (SIDeS) strategy to guide experiment selection prior to parameter estimation. The methodology is applied to four literature kinetic models for methanol synthesis, spanning varying levels of mechanistic detail. A Sobol-sampled design space is first screened for feasibility and local information content, followed by cumulative Fisher information analysis. Results demonstrate that conventional screening campaigns provide limited gains in parameter precision, whereas SIDeS identify compact experimental sequences that significantly improve practical identifiability within a constrained experimental budget. Cross-model comparison reveals that increased mechanistic description does not necessarily translate to improved identifiability under fixed experimental resources. The proposed framework supports informed model selection, reduces unnecessary calibration effort, and provides actionable design-of-experiments recommendations for methanol synthesis systems.
Record ID
Keywords
Design of Experiments, Fisher Information Matrix, Identifiability Analysis, Kinetic Modelling, Methanol Synthesis
Subject
Suggested Citation
Ahmad E, Alberto B, Luca N, Galvanin F. Model Screening and Identifiability Analysis of Methanol Synthesis Kinetics: Information-Guided Evaluation of Operating Conditions. Systems and Control Transactions 5:828-837 (2026) https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.123737
Author Affiliations
Ahmad E: University College London, Department of Chemical Engineering, London, United kingdom
Alberto B: Casale SA, R&D division, Basic Research Department, Lugano, Switzerland
Luca N: Casale SA, R&D division, Basic Research Department, Lugano, Switzerland
Galvanin F: University College London, Department of Chemical Engineering, London, United kingdom
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Alberto B: Casale SA, R&D division, Basic Research Department, Lugano, Switzerland
Luca N: Casale SA, R&D division, Basic Research Department, Lugano, Switzerland
Galvanin F: University College London, Department of Chemical Engineering, London, United kingdom
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Journal Name
Systems and Control Transactions
Volume
5
First Page
828
Last Page
837
Year
2026
Publication Date
2026-06-12
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: 0828-0837-19-SCT-5-2026, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2026.0306
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https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.123737
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Jun 12, 2026
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References Cited
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