LAPSE:2025.0431v1
Published Article

LAPSE:2025.0431v1
A White-Box AI Framework for Interpretable Global Warming Potential Prediction
June 27, 2025
Abstract
Accurate yet interpretable prediction of Global Warming Potential (GWP) is essential for the sustainable design of chemical products and processes. However, existing studies that utilize molecular structure and physicochemical properties for GWP prediction often suffer from low interpretability, relying on black-box models that obscure the underlying relationships between molecular descriptors and environmental impact. To address this limitation, this study employs a KolmogorovArnold Network (KAN) to derive symbolic equations that establish explicit relationships between molecular properties and GWP. By extracting interpretable mathematical expressions, our approach provides a transparent foundation for decision-making in chemical processes and reaction development. Our comparative analysis of machine learning modelsincluding Random Forest, XGBoost, Deep Neural Networks (DNN), and KANreveals that Mordred descriptors outperform MACCS keys in GWP prediction, emphasizing the importance of physicochemical properties. The proposed KAN model achieves predictive accuracy comparable to conventional deep learning methods while maintaining interpretability, facilitating data-driven and transparent sustainability assessments in the chemical industry.
Accurate yet interpretable prediction of Global Warming Potential (GWP) is essential for the sustainable design of chemical products and processes. However, existing studies that utilize molecular structure and physicochemical properties for GWP prediction often suffer from low interpretability, relying on black-box models that obscure the underlying relationships between molecular descriptors and environmental impact. To address this limitation, this study employs a KolmogorovArnold Network (KAN) to derive symbolic equations that establish explicit relationships between molecular properties and GWP. By extracting interpretable mathematical expressions, our approach provides a transparent foundation for decision-making in chemical processes and reaction development. Our comparative analysis of machine learning modelsincluding Random Forest, XGBoost, Deep Neural Networks (DNN), and KANreveals that Mordred descriptors outperform MACCS keys in GWP prediction, emphasizing the importance of physicochemical properties. The proposed KAN model achieves predictive accuracy comparable to conventional deep learning methods while maintaining interpretability, facilitating data-driven and transparent sustainability assessments in the chemical industry.
Record ID
Keywords
Environmental Impact Prediction, Explainable Artificial Intelligence XAI, Global Warming Potential GWP, KolmogorovArnold Network KAN, Life Cycle Assessment LCA
Subject
Suggested Citation
Lee J, Errington E, Guo M. A White-Box AI Framework for Interpretable Global Warming Potential Prediction. Systems and Control Transactions 4:1737-1743 (2025) https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.177555
Author Affiliations
Lee J: Department of Engineering, Kings College London, London, WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom
Errington E: Department of Engineering, Kings College London, London, WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom
Guo M: Department of Engineering, Kings College London, London, WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom
Errington E: Department of Engineering, Kings College London, London, WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom
Guo M: Department of Engineering, Kings College London, London, WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom
Journal Name
Systems and Control Transactions
Volume
4
First Page
1737
Last Page
1743
Year
2025
Publication Date
2025-07-01
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: 1737-1743-1294-SCT-4-2025, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2025.0431v1
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https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.177555
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Jun 27, 2025
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