Abstract
A comprehensive assessment was conducted for the electricity dispatch in the Mexican National Interconnected System for the 2017−2021 period, as well as the projected period of 2022−2030, with special attention on emissions and the transition to clean energy. The reported official generation data for the 2017−2021 period were compared to the results of both one- and multi-node dispatch modeling. The officially reported generation mix was found to be sub-optimal in terms of costs and emissions. A small part of the differences can be traced back to transmission constraints. Some of the remaining discrepancies can be explained by out-of-merit order dispatch favoring fossil fuel power plants. While transmission constraints were not critical for the 2017−2021 period, an increasing unbalance between regions with cost-effective generation (exporting regions) and importing regions was found, calling for inter-region transmission corridor reinforcements in the near future. The 2022−2030 emissions dramatically depend on the contemplated scenario. The existing project pipeline would allow for a 45% fraction of clean electricity by 2024, but the projection of current policies, with a renewed focus on generation from fossil fuels, makes a reduced generation from clean sources more likely. A clear policy path is required to bring Mexico’s emissions in line with its national and international clean energy and climate change mitigation goals.