LAPSE:2023.7180
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.7180
Projected Changes in Solar PV and Wind Energy Potential over West Africa: An Analysis of CORDEX-CORE Simulations
Aissatou Ndiaye, Mounkaila Saley Moussa, Cheikh Dione, Windmanagda Sawadogo, Jan Bliefernicht, Laouali Dungall, Harald Kunstmann
February 24, 2023
Renewable energy development is growing fast and is expected to expand in the next decades in West Africa as a contribution to addressing the power demand and climate change mitigation. However, the future impacts of climate change on solar PV and the wind energy potential in the region are still unclear. This study investigates the expected future impacts of climate change on solar PV and wind energy potential over West Africa using an ensemble of three regional climate models (RCMs). Each RCM is driven by three global climate models (GCMs) from the new coordinated high-resolution output for regional evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Two projection periods were used: the near future (2021−2050) and the far future (2071−2100). For the model evaluation, reanalysis data from ERA5 and satellite-based climate data (SARAH-2) were used. The models and their ensemble mean (hereafter Mean) show acceptable performance for the simulations of the solar PV potential, the wind power density, and related variables with some biases. The Mean predicts a general decrease in the solar PV potential over the region of about −2% in the near future and −4% in the far future. The wind power density (WPD) is expected to increase by about 20% in the near future and 40% in the far future. The changes for solar PV potential seem to be consistent, although the intensity differs according to the RCM used. For the WPD, there are some discrepancies among the RCMs in terms of intensity and direction. This study can guide governments and policymakers in decision making for future solar and wind energy projects in the region.
Keywords
climate change, CORDEX-CORE, regional climate modelling, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, West Africa
Suggested Citation
Ndiaye A, Moussa MS, Dione C, Sawadogo W, Bliefernicht J, Dungall L, Kunstmann H. Projected Changes in Solar PV and Wind Energy Potential over West Africa: An Analysis of CORDEX-CORE Simulations. (2023). LAPSE:2023.7180
Author Affiliations
Ndiaye A: West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Uses (WASCAL) Doctoral Research Program in Climate Change and Energy (DRP-CCE), Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey BP 10662, Niger
Moussa MS: West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Uses (WASCAL) Doctoral Research Program in Climate Change and Energy (DRP-CCE), Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey BP 10662, Niger; Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences and Techni
Dione C: Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique de Paris, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CEDEX, 91128 Palaiseau, France
Sawadogo W: Regional Climate and Hydrology, Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86135 Augsburg, Germany [ORCID]
Bliefernicht J: Regional Climate and Hydrology, Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86135 Augsburg, Germany
Dungall L: Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences and Techniques, Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey BP 10662, Niger
Kunstmann H: Regional Climate and Hydrology, Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86135 Augsburg, Germany; Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
24
First Page
9602
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-12-17
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en15249602, Publication Type: Journal Article
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doi:10.3390/en15249602
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Feb 24, 2023
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