LAPSE:2023.7127
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.7127
Will Climate Change Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy
February 24, 2023
This work aims to assess the impacts of climate change on photovoltaic (PV) electricity in two Italian cities, with different latitudes and Köppen−Geiger climate classifications. This was undertaken using the recent EURO-CORDEX set of high-resolution climate projections and PV power generation models, implemented on TRNSYS software. Data for two variables (surface air temperature and solar radiation) were analysed over a long period from 1971 to 2100. For future periods, two of the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report were considered. In both RCP scenarios and both locations, it is estimated that the yearly PV energy produced in the future period will not undergo significant variations on average given that the rate of decrease is foreseen almost constant; instead, a slight reduction in the PV energy was detected in the past period. It can be concluded that the PV market in Italy will grow in the next years considering that the reduction in the foreseen PV purchase costs will be also supported by the slight positive effect of climate change on PV manufacturability.
Keywords
climate change, dynamic simulation, efficiency, electricity, photovoltaic
Suggested Citation
Matera N, Mazzeo D, Baglivo C, Congedo PM. Will Climate Change Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy. (2023). LAPSE:2023.7127
Author Affiliations
Matera N: Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy [ORCID]
Mazzeo D: Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy; Department of Mechanical, Energy and Management Engineering (DIMEG), University of Calabria, P. Bucci Cube 46/C, 87036 Arcavacata of Rende, Italy [ORCID]
Baglivo C: Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy [ORCID]
Congedo PM: Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
24
First Page
9546
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-12-16
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: en15249546, Publication Type: Journal Article
Record Map
Published Article

LAPSE:2023.7127
This Record
External Link

doi:10.3390/en15249546
Publisher Version
Download
Files
[Download 1v1.pdf] (7.4 MB)
Feb 24, 2023
Main Article
License
CC BY 4.0
Meta
Record Statistics
Record Views
55
Version History
[v1] (Original Submission)
Feb 24, 2023
 
Verified by curator on
Feb 24, 2023
This Version Number
v1
Citations
Most Recent
This Version
URL Here
https://psecommunity.org/LAPSE:2023.7127
 
Original Submitter
Auto Uploader for LAPSE
Links to Related Works
Directly Related to This Work
Publisher Version