LAPSE:2023.6991
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.6991
Multi-Criteria Future Energy System Planning and Analysis for Hot Arid Areas of Iran
Hossein Yousefi, Mohammad Hasan Ghodusinejad, Armin Ghodrati
February 24, 2023
An increase in energy demand in the coming years is inevitable, and therefore it is necessary to provide optimal solutions for this future need. This paper examines the future energy demands of the southern regions of Iran (with a hot and dry climate and high energy needs). In this regard, the overall structure of the research has been divided into three parts. In the first part, using historical energy consumption data, the energy demand in 2030 is predicted. This is carried out utilizing a time series analysis method, namely Holt−Winters. Then, relying on the plans of the Iran Ministry of Energy, various energy plans have been designed and energy modeling has been carried out for both base and forecast years. Finally, regarding a multi-criteria decision-making approach, energy plans are ranked and the best scenarios are selected and analyzed. The results of modeling and multi-criteria analysis showed that comprehensive and simultaneous development in the construction of thermal and renewable power plants is the best option to meet future energy needs.
Keywords
CRITIC, demand forecasting, EDAS, energy planning, Holt-Winters
Suggested Citation
Yousefi H, Ghodusinejad MH, Ghodrati A. Multi-Criteria Future Energy System Planning and Analysis for Hot Arid Areas of Iran. (2023). LAPSE:2023.6991
Author Affiliations
Yousefi H: Renewable Energies and Environmental Engineering Department, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran 14166-34793, Iran [ORCID]
Ghodusinejad MH: Renewable Energies and Environmental Engineering Department, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran 14166-34793, Iran
Ghodrati A: School of Advanced Technologies, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran 13114-16846, Iran
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
24
First Page
9405
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-12-12
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en15249405, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.6991
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doi:10.3390/en15249405
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Feb 24, 2023
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