Abstract
It is an urgent scientific issue to explore the spatial and temporal differentiation and impact indicators of the agricultural water footprint in major grain-producing areas. Therefore, this study tries to use the water footprint theory to implement top-down calculation of the agricultural water footprint in major grain-producing regions from 2000 to 2019 and investigate the various impacts on the agricultural water footprint under the influence of spatial-temporal effects using spatial autocorrelation and the spatial Dubin model. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2019, the overall agricultural water footprint of China showed a fluctuating downward trend in an inverted N shape and demonstrated high−high and low−low spatial aggregation characteristics. There are notable characteristics, including high spatial dependence, spatial barriers, and path locking of the agricultural water footprint in most provinces and regions of the main grain-producing areas. Policy factors, water-saving technologies, social development, economic development, and industrial structure adjustment are all significantly and negatively correlated with the increase in the agricultural water footprint, while agricultural production and natural factors have a significant positive relationship with the agricultural water footprint. The spatial spillover effect of water-saving technologies, industrial restructuring, agricultural production, and natural factors is powerful. Therefore, a rationally optimized industrial structure, strengthened regional linkage of water resources management and control, and the promotion of efficient water infrastructure technology are important ways to inhibit the agricultural water footprint.