LAPSE:2023.4520
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.4520
Predictive Analysis of Municipal Solid Waste Generation Using an Optimized Neural Network Model
Nehal Elshaboury, Eslam Mohammed Abdelkader, Abobakr Al-Sakkaf, Ghasan Alfalah
February 23, 2023
Developing successful municipal waste management planning strategies is crucial for implementing sustainable development. The research proposed the application of an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) to forecast quantities of waste in Poland. The neural network coupled with particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is compared to the conventional neural network using five assessment metrics. The metrics are coefficient of efficiency (CE), Pearson correlation coefficient (R), Willmott’s index of agreement (WI), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean bias error (MBE). Selected explanatory factors are incorporated in the developed models to reflect the influence of economic, demographic, and social aspects on the rate of waste generation. These factors are population, employment to population ratio, revenue per capita, number of entities by type of business activity, and number of entities enlisted in REGON per 10,000 population. According to the findings, the ANN−PSO model (CE = 0.92, R = 0.96, WI = 0.98, RMSE = 11,342.74, and MBE = 6548.55) significantly outperforms the traditional ANN model (CE = 0.11, R = 0.68, WI = 0.78, RMSE = 38,571.68, and MBE = 30,652.04). The significant level of the reported outputs is evaluated using the Wilcoxon−Mann−Whitney U-test, with a significance level of 0.05. The p-values of the pairings (ANN, observed) and (ANN, ANN−PSO) are all less than 0.05, suggesting that the models are statistically different. On the other hand, the P-value of (ANN−PSO, observed) is more than 0.05, suggesting that the difference between the models is statistically insignificant. Therefore, the proposed ANN−PSO model proves its efficiency at estimating municipal solid waste quantities and may be regarded as a cost-efficient method of developing integrated waste management systems.
Keywords
hybrid neural network, municipal solid waste, Particle Swarm Optimization, predictive modelling, trend analysis
Suggested Citation
Elshaboury N, Mohammed Abdelkader E, Al-Sakkaf A, Alfalah G. Predictive Analysis of Municipal Solid Waste Generation Using an Optimized Neural Network Model. (2023). LAPSE:2023.4520
Author Affiliations
Elshaboury N: Construction and Project Management Research Institute, Housing and Building National Research Centre, Giza 12311, Egypt
Mohammed Abdelkader E: Structural Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Giza 12613, Egypt
Al-Sakkaf A: Department of Buildings, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Concordia University, Montreal, QC H3G 1M8, Canada; Department of Architecture & Environmental Planning, College of Engineering & Petroleum, Hadhramout University, Mukalla 50512, Yemen
Alfalah G: Department of Architecture and Building Science, College of Architecture and Planning, King Saud University, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia [ORCID]
Journal Name
Processes
Volume
9
Issue
11
First Page
2045
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-11-15
Published Version
ISSN
2227-9717
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Original Submission
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PII: pr9112045, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.4520
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doi:10.3390/pr9112045
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Feb 23, 2023
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