LAPSE:2023.34923
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.34923
Knowledge Discovery to Support WTI Crude Oil Price Risk Management
April 28, 2023
The high volatility of commodity prices and various problems that the energy sector has to deal with in the era of COVID-19 have significantly increased the risk of oil price changes. These changes are of the main concern of companies for which oil is the main input in the production process, and therefore oil price determines the production costs. The main goal of this paper is to discover decision rules for a buyer of American WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil call options. The presented research uses factors characterizing the option price, such as implied volatility and option sensitivity factors (delta, gamma, vega, and theta, known as “Greeks”). The performed analysis covers the years 2008−2022 and options with an exercise period up to three months. The decision rules are discovered using association analysis and are evaluated in terms of the three investment efficiency indicators: total payoff, average payoff, and return on investment. The results show the existence of certain ranges of the analyzed parameters for which the mentioned efficiency indicators reached particularly high values. The relationships discovered and recorded in the form of decision rules can be effectively used or adapted by practitioners to support their decisions in oil price risk management.
Keywords
commodity options, crude oil price risk, decision making, decision rules, Greeks, implied volatility, knowledge discovery
Suggested Citation
Puka R, Łamasz B, Skalna I, Basiura B, Duda J. Knowledge Discovery to Support WTI Crude Oil Price Risk Management. (2023). LAPSE:2023.34923
Author Affiliations
Puka R: Faculty of Management, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Kraków, Poland [ORCID]
Łamasz B: Faculty of Management, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Kraków, Poland [ORCID]
Skalna I: Faculty of Management, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Kraków, Poland [ORCID]
Basiura B: Faculty of Management, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Kraków, Poland [ORCID]
Duda J: Faculty of Management, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Kraków, Poland [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
16
Issue
8
First Page
3486
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-04-17
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en16083486, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.34923
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doi:10.3390/en16083486
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Apr 28, 2023
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