LAPSE:2023.34311
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.34311
Pan-European CVaR-Constrained Stochastic Unit Commitment in Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Markets
Moritz Nobis, Carlo Schmitt, Ralf Schemm, Armin Schnettler
April 25, 2023
The fundamental modeling of energy systems through individual unit commitment decisions is crucial for energy system planning. However, current large-scale models are not capable of including uncertainties or even risk-averse behavior arising from forecasting errors of variable renewable energies. However, risks associated with uncertain forecasting errors have become increasingly relevant within the process of decarbonization. The intraday market serves to compensate for these forecasting errors. Thus, the uncertainty of forecasting errors results in uncertain intraday prices and quantities. Therefore, this paper proposes a two-stage risk-constrained stochastic optimization approach to fundamentally model unit commitment decisions facing an uncertain intraday market. By the nesting of Lagrangian relaxation and an extended Benders decomposition, this model can be applied to large-scale, e.g., pan-European, power systems. The approach is applied to scenarios for 2023—considering a full nuclear phase-out in Germany—and 2035—considering a full coal phase-out in Germany. First, the influence of the risk factors is evaluated. Furthermore, an evaluation of the market prices shows an increase in price levels as well as an increasing day-ahead-intraday spread in 2023 and in 2035. Finally, it is shown that intraday cross-border trading has a significant influence on trading volumes and prices and ensures a more efficient allocation of resources.
Keywords
benders decomposition, conditional value at risk, forecasting errors, intraday markets, Lagrangian relaxation, stochastic mixed integer programming, unit commitment
Suggested Citation
Nobis M, Schmitt C, Schemm R, Schnettler A. Pan-European CVaR-Constrained Stochastic Unit Commitment in Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Markets. (2023). LAPSE:2023.34311
Author Affiliations
Nobis M: Institute for High Voltage Equipment and Grids, Digitalization and Energy Economics (IAEW), RWTH Aachen University, 52056 Aachen, Germany [ORCID]
Schmitt C: Institute for High Voltage Equipment and Grids, Digitalization and Energy Economics (IAEW), RWTH Aachen University, 52056 Aachen, Germany [ORCID]
Schemm R: Energy Technology, Aachen University of Applied Sciences, 52428 Jülich, Germany
Schnettler A: Siemens AG, 80333 Munich, Germany
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
13
Issue
9
Article Number
E2339
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-05-08
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en13092339, Publication Type: Journal Article
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doi:10.3390/en13092339
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Apr 25, 2023
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