LAPSE:2023.34249
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.34249
Less Information, Similar Performance: Comparing Machine Learning-Based Time Series of Wind Power Generation to Renewables.ninja
Johann Baumgartner, Katharina Gruber, Sofia G. Simoes, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Johannes Schmidt
April 25, 2023
Driven by climatic processes, wind power generation is inherently variable. Long-term simulated wind power time series are therefore an essential component for understanding the temporal availability of wind power and its integration into future renewable energy systems. In the recent past, mainly power curve-based models such as Renewables.ninja (RN) have been used for deriving synthetic time series for wind power generation, despite their need for accurate location information and bias correction, as well as their insufficient replication of extreme events and short-term power ramps. In this paper, we assessed how time series generated by machine learning models (MLMs) compare to RN in terms of their ability to replicate the characteristics of observed nationally aggregated wind power generation for Germany. Hence, we applied neural networks to one wind speed input dataset derived from MERRA2 reanalysis with no location information and two with additional location information. The resulting time series and RN time series were compared with actual generation. All MLM time series feature an equal or even better time series quality than RN, depending on the characteristics considered. We conclude that MLM models show a similar performance to RN, even when information on turbine locations and turbine types is unavailable.
Keywords
Machine Learning, reanalysis, wind power simulation, wind power time series
Suggested Citation
Baumgartner J, Gruber K, Simoes SG, Saint-Drenan YM, Schmidt J. Less Information, Similar Performance: Comparing Machine Learning-Based Time Series of Wind Power Generation to Renewables.ninja. (2023). LAPSE:2023.34249
Author Affiliations
Baumgartner J: Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180 Vienna, Austria
Gruber K: Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180 Vienna, Austria [ORCID]
Simoes SG: LNEG—The National Laboratory for Energy and Geology, Resource Economics Unit, 1649-038 Lisbon, Portugal
Saint-Drenan YM: MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, O.I.E. Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, 06904 Sophia Antipolis, France
Schmidt J: Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180 Vienna, Austria
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
13
Issue
9
Article Number
E2277
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-05-05
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en13092277, Publication Type: Journal Article
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doi:10.3390/en13092277
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Apr 25, 2023
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