LAPSE:2023.33973
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.33973
Stochastic Modelling to Analyze the Impact of Electric Vehicle Penetration in Thailand
Narongkorn Uthathip, Pornrapeepat Bhasaputra, Woraratana Pattaraprakorn
April 24, 2023
Electric Vehicle (EV) technology is one of the most promising solutions to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector. However, a large increase of EVs raises concerns about negative impacts on electricity generation, transmission, and distribution systems. This study analyzes the benefits and trade-offs for EV penetration in Thai road transport based on EV penetration scenarios from 2019 to 2036. Two charging strategies are considered to assess the impact of EV charging: free charging and off-peak charging. Uncertainty variables are considered by a stochastic approach based on Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS). The simulation results shown that the adoption of EVs can reduce both energy consumption and GHG emissions. The results also indicate that the increased load due to EV charging demand in all scenarios is still within the buffer level, compared to the installed generation capacity in the Power Development Plan 2018 revision 1 (PDP2018r1), and the off-peak charging strategy is more beneficial than the free-charging strategy. However, the increased load demand caused by all EV charging strategies has a direct impact on the power generating schedule, and also decreases the system reliability level.
Keywords
charging demand, charging strategy, electric vehicles, Monte-Carlo simulation, power development plan
Suggested Citation
Uthathip N, Bhasaputra P, Pattaraprakorn W. Stochastic Modelling to Analyze the Impact of Electric Vehicle Penetration in Thailand. (2023). LAPSE:2023.33973
Author Affiliations
Uthathip N: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand [ORCID]
Bhasaputra P: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
Pattaraprakorn W: Department of Chemical Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
16
First Page
5037
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-08-17
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en14165037, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.33973
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doi:10.3390/en14165037
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Apr 24, 2023
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