LAPSE:2023.33923
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.33923
Optimal Decision Making in Electrical Systems Using an Asset Risk Management Framework
April 24, 2023
In this paper, a methodology for optimal decision making for electrical systems is addressed. This methodology seeks to identify and to prioritize the replacement and maintenance of a power asset fleet optimizing the return of investment. It fulfills this objective by considering the risk index, the replacement and maintenance costs, and the company revenue. The risk index is estimated and predicted for each asset using both its condition records and by evaluating the consequence of its failure. The condition is quantified as the probability of failure of the asset, and the consequence is determined by the impact of the asset failure on the whole system. Failure probability is estimated using the health index as scoring of asset condition. The consequence is evaluated considering a failure impact on the objectives of reliability (energy not supplied -ENS), environment, legality, and finance using Monte Carlo simulations for an assumed period of planning. Finally, the methodology was implemented in an open-source library called PywerAPM for assessing optimal decisions, where the proposed mathematical optimization problem is solved. As a benchmark, the power transformer fleet of the New England IEEE 39 Bus System was used. Condition records were provided by a local utility to compute the health index of each transformer. Subsequently, a Monte Carlo contingency simulation was performed to estimate the energy not supplied for a period of analysis of 10 years. As a result, the fleet is ranked according to risk index, and the optimal replacement and maintenance are estimated for the entire fleet.
Keywords
asset management, decision making, health index, Monte Carlo simulations, risk index
Suggested Citation
Alvarez DL, Rodriguez DF, Cardenas A, da Silva FF, Leth Bak C, García R, Rivera S. Optimal Decision Making in Electrical Systems Using an Asset Risk Management Framework. (2023). LAPSE:2023.33923
Author Affiliations
Alvarez DL: Department of Electric and Electronic Engineering, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá 111321, Colombia [ORCID]
Rodriguez DF: Department of Electric and Electronic Engineering, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá 111321, Colombia; GERS USA, Weston, FL 33331, USA
Cardenas A: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières, QC 3592, Canada [ORCID]
da Silva FF: Department of Energy Technology, Aalborg University, 9100 Aalborg, Denmark [ORCID]
Leth Bak C: Department of Energy Technology, Aalborg University, 9100 Aalborg, Denmark [ORCID]
García R: Deparment of Operation & Maintenance, Enel-Codensa, Bogotá 11010, Colombia [ORCID]
Rivera S: Department of Electric and Electronic Engineering, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá 111321, Colombia [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
16
First Page
4987
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-08-13
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: en14164987, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.33923
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doi:10.3390/en14164987
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Apr 24, 2023
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