LAPSE:2023.33621
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.33621
Threshold Effect of Economic Growth on Energy Intensity—Evidence from 21 Developed Countries
Jinjin Zhou, Zenglin Ma, Taoyuan Wei, Chang Li
April 21, 2023
Based on threshold regression models, this paper analyzes the effect of economic growth on energy intensity by using panel data from 21 developed countries from 1996 to 2015. Results show that a 1% increase in GDP per capita can lead to a 0.62−0.78% reduction in energy intensity, implying economic growth can significantly reduce energy intensity. The extent of the reduction in energy intensity varies depending on the economic development stages represented by key influencing factors including energy mix in consumption, urbanization, industrial structure, and technological progress. Specifically, the reduction in energy intensity due to economic growth can be enhanced with relatively more renewable energy consumption and more urban population until a threshold point, where the enhancement disappears. On the other hand, the extent of the energy intensity reduction due to economic growth can be weakened with relatively more tertiary industry activities and more research and development (R&D) investment in an economy until a threshold point, where the weakening cannot continue. However, compared to the early stages represented by the low ends of renewable energy consumption, urban population, tertiary industry activities, and R&D investment, the later stages represented by the high ends of these key factors after a threshold show the weakened effect of economic growth on the decline of energy intensity. Hence, when an economy is well-developed, policy makers are advised to put fewer expectations on the role of economic growth to reduce energy intensity, while pursuing relatively cleaner energy, greater urbanization, more tertiary industry activities, and advanced technologies.
Keywords
economic growth, energy intensity, industrial structure, R&D investment, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, threshold regression, urbanization
Suggested Citation
Zhou J, Ma Z, Wei T, Li C. Threshold Effect of Economic Growth on Energy Intensity—Evidence from 21 Developed Countries. (2023). LAPSE:2023.33621
Author Affiliations
Zhou J: College of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Changjiang Road 600, Harbin 150038, China
Ma Z: College of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Changjiang Road 600, Harbin 150038, China
Wei T: CICERO Center for International Climate Research, 0318 Oslo, Norway [ORCID]
Li C: WISE Lab, Institute of Science of Science and S&T Management, Dalian University of Technology, Linggong Road 2, Ganjingzi District, Dalian 116024, China [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
14
First Page
4199
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-07-12
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en14144199, Publication Type: Journal Article
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doi:10.3390/en14144199
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