Abstract
When developing a sustainability plan in a complex and heavily urbanized territory, one of the most relevant options available is installing rooftop photovoltaic (PV) panels. Thus, it is essential to determine the amount of available surface and the potential impact of such installations on the energy and emission budget of the area. Instead of processing remotely sensed imagery, which is a long process and does not allow considering the buildings’ ownership, this study develops an approach based on a cluster analysis of the urban/morphological characteristics of the municipalities. Once a clear group diversification is obtained, the roof surface of the center of gravity of each cluster is extrapolated to all similar settlements. This, together with the information of local solar irradiation, allowed us to compute each cluster’s potential solar energy production and its capability to respond to the local energy demand, a key parameter to decide about the possibility of a local smart electricity network. Finally, the emissions avoided thanks to solar PV development are computed in terms of carbon dioxide and other relevant pollutants. This approach is applied to the residential rooftop of Lombardy, a Northern Italy region with a wide variety of urban morphologies and landscapes. The potential production of rooftop PV exceeds the estimated electricity consumption of residential buildings and would allow sparing almost 4 M ton of CO2 equivalent or 5% of the overall regional emissions.