LAPSE:2023.32699
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.32699
Importance of the Long-Term Seasonal Component in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Revisited: Parameter-Rich Models Estimated via the LASSO
April 20, 2023
Recent studies suggest that decomposing a series of electricity spot prices into a trend-seasonal and a stochastic component, modeling them independently, and then combining their forecasts can yield more accurate predictions than an approach in which the same parsimonious regression or neural network-based model is calibrated to the prices themselves. Here, we show that significant accuracy gains can also be achieved in the case of parameter-rich models estimated via the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Moreover, we provide insights as to the order of applying seasonal decomposition and variance stabilizing transformations before model calibration, and propose two well-performing forecast averaging schemes that are based on different approaches for modeling the long-term seasonal component.
Keywords
day-ahead market, electricity price forecasting, forecast averaging, LASSO, long-term seasonal component, variance stabilizing transformation
Suggested Citation
Jędrzejewski A, Marcjasz G, Weron R. Importance of the Long-Term Seasonal Component in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Revisited: Parameter-Rich Models Estimated via the LASSO. (2023). LAPSE:2023.32699
Author Affiliations
Jędrzejewski A: Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland [ORCID]
Marcjasz G: Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland [ORCID]
Weron R: Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
11
First Page
3249
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-06-02
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en14113249, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.32699
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doi:10.3390/en14113249
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