LAPSE:2023.32438
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.32438
High Precision LSTM Model for Short-Time Load Forecasting in Power Systems
Tomasz Ciechulski, Stanisław Osowski
April 20, 2023
The paper presents the application of recurrent LSTM neural networks for short-time load forecasting in the Polish Power System (PPS) and a small region of a power system in Central Poland. The objective of the present work was to develop an efficient and accurate method of forecasting the 24-h pattern of power load with a 1-h and 24-h horizon. LSTM showed effectiveness in predicting the irregular trends in time series. The final forecast is estimated using an ensemble consisted of five independent predictions. Numerical experiments proved the superiority of the ensemble above single predictor resulting in a reduction of the MAPE the RMSE error by more than 6% in both forecasting tasks.
Keywords
demand-side management, load forecasting, power systems, prediction systems, recurrent LSTM network
Suggested Citation
Ciechulski T, Osowski S. High Precision LSTM Model for Short-Time Load Forecasting in Power Systems. (2023). LAPSE:2023.32438
Author Affiliations
Ciechulski T: Institute of Electronic Systems, Faculty of Electronics, Military University of Technology, ul. gen. Sylwestra Kaliskiego 2, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland [ORCID]
Osowski S: Institute of Electronic Systems, Faculty of Electronics, Military University of Technology, ul. gen. Sylwestra Kaliskiego 2, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland; Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, pl. Politechniki 1, 00-661 Warsaw, Pola
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
11
First Page
2983
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-05-21
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en14112983, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.32438
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doi:10.3390/en14112983
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Apr 20, 2023
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