LAPSE:2023.32020
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.32020
A Mathematical Description of Selected Energy Transition Scenarios in the 21st Century, Intended to Realize the Main Goals of the Paris Climate Agreement
Askar A. Akaev, Olga I. Davydova
April 19, 2023
On 4 November 2016, the historic Paris Climate Agreement of the United Nations entered into force, requiring signatory countries to maintain global warming at the level of 1.5−2 °C. According to the calculations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to achieve this goal, a 2/3 reduction in greenhouse gas energy emissions into the atmosphere compared with gaseous energy-related emissions in 2019 (33.3 Gt) by about 2050 (1.5 °C) or by 2070 (2 °C) is required. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), this is only possible with the implementation of a great energy transition from the use of currently dominant fossil hydrocarbon fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas—to the predominant use of renewable energy sources (RES) by 2040−2050, when the share of renewable energy in the total energy balance will reach 40% and above. In this work, mathematical description of an upcoming energy transition has been carried out, including long-term scenario writing of the world’s demographic dynamics and global energy demand, calculation of the dynamics of industrial CO2 emissions and CO2 accumulation in the Earth’s atmosphere, as well as the corresponding changes in the average global temperature of the Earth’s surface in the 21st century. A mathematical description of the impact of energy consumption on climate change was carried out taking into account long-term trends in the dynamics of energy consumption. Using the performed mathematically-oriented scenario writing, it is suggested that a great energy transition with the achievement of the goals of the Paris Agreement is possible only by 2060. Renewable energy could sufficiently displace and replace hydrocarbon fuels to achieve climate safety without compromising economic development. As a result, humanity will receive an environmentally friendly decentralized distributed energy system, connected by «smart» grids, controlled by intelligent digital technologies.
Keywords
decarbonization policy, decentralization of energy systems, electrification of energy consumption, Energy Efficiency, energy transition, global warming, mathematically-oriented scenario writing, Paris Climate Agreement, renewable energy sources, smart grids
Suggested Citation
Akaev AA, Davydova OI. A Mathematical Description of Selected Energy Transition Scenarios in the 21st Century, Intended to Realize the Main Goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. (2023). LAPSE:2023.32020
Author Affiliations
Akaev AA: Faculty of Global Studies, Moscow State University, 119234 Moscow, Russia
Davydova OI: Faculty of Global Studies, Moscow State University, 119234 Moscow, Russia
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
9
First Page
2558
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-04-29
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: en14092558, Publication Type: Journal Article
Record Map
Published Article

LAPSE:2023.32020
This Record
External Link

doi:10.3390/en14092558
Publisher Version
Download
Files
[Download 1v1.pdf] (7.2 MB)
Apr 19, 2023
Main Article
License
CC BY 4.0
Meta
Record Statistics
Record Views
91
Version History
[v1] (Original Submission)
Apr 19, 2023
 
Verified by curator on
Apr 19, 2023
This Version Number
v1
Citations
Most Recent
This Version
URL Here
https://psecommunity.org/LAPSE:2023.32020
 
Original Submitter
Auto Uploader for LAPSE
Links to Related Works
Directly Related to This Work
Publisher Version