LAPSE:2023.31689
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.31689
Spatiotemporal Optimization for Short-Term Solar Forecasting Based on Satellite Imagery
Myeongchan Oh, Chang Ki Kim, Boyoung Kim, Changyeol Yun, Yong-Heack Kang, Hyun-Goo Kim
April 19, 2023
Solar forecasting is essential for optimizing the integration of solar photovoltaic energy into a power grid. This study presents solar forecasting models based on satellite imagery. The cloud motion vector (CMV) model is the most popular satellite-image-based solar forecasting model. However, it assumes constant cloud states, and its accuracy is, thus, influenced by changes in local weather characteristics. To overcome this limitation, satellite images are used to provide spatial data for a new spatiotemporal optimized model for solar forecasting. Four satellite-image-based solar forecasting models (a persistence model, CMV, and two proposed models that use clear-sky index change) are evaluated. The error distributions of the models and their spatial characteristics over the test area are analyzed. All models exhibited different performances according to the forecast horizon and location. Spatiotemporal optimization of the best model is then conducted using best-model maps, and our results show that the skill score of the optimized model is 21% better than the previous CMV model. It is, thus, considered to be appropriate for use in short-term forecasting over large areas. The results of this study are expected to promote the use of spatial data in solar forecasting models, which could improve their accuracy and provide various insights for the planning and operation of photovoltaic plants.
Keywords
cloud motion vector (CMV), Optimization, satellite images, solar forecasting, spatial analysis, spatiotemporal
Suggested Citation
Oh M, Kim CK, Kim B, Yun C, Kang YH, Kim HG. Spatiotemporal Optimization for Short-Term Solar Forecasting Based on Satellite Imagery. (2023). LAPSE:2023.31689
Author Affiliations
Oh M: New & Renewable Energy Resource Map Laboratory, Korea Institute of Energy Research, Daejeon 34129, Korea [ORCID]
Kim CK: New & Renewable Energy Resource Map Laboratory, Korea Institute of Energy Research, Daejeon 34129, Korea
Kim B: New & Renewable Energy Resource Map Laboratory, Korea Institute of Energy Research, Daejeon 34129, Korea [ORCID]
Yun C: New & Renewable Energy Resource Map Laboratory, Korea Institute of Energy Research, Daejeon 34129, Korea
Kang YH: New & Renewable Energy Resource Map Laboratory, Korea Institute of Energy Research, Daejeon 34129, Korea
Kim HG: New & Renewable Energy Resource Map Laboratory, Korea Institute of Energy Research, Daejeon 34129, Korea [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
8
First Page
2216
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-04-15
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en14082216, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.31689
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doi:10.3390/en14082216
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Apr 19, 2023
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