LAPSE:2023.31640
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.31640
Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting in Poland Based on Numerical Weather Prediction
Bogdan Bochenek, Jakub Jurasz, Adam Jaczewski, Gabriel Stachura, Piotr Sekuła, Tomasz Strzyżewski, Marcin Wdowikowski, Mariusz Figurski
April 19, 2023
The role of renewable energy sources in the Polish power system is growing. The highest share of installed capacity goes to wind and solar energy. Both sources are characterized by high variability of their power output and very low dispatchability. Taking into account the nature of the power system, it is, therefore, imperative to predict their future energy generation to economically schedule the use of conventional generators. Considering the above, this paper examines the possibility to predict day-ahead wind power based on different machine learning methods not for a specific wind farm but at national level. A numerical weather prediction model used operationally in the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management−National Research Institute in Poland and hourly data of recorded wind power generation in Poland were used for forecasting models creation and testing. With the best method, the Extreme Gradient Boosting, and two years of training (2018−2019), the day-ahead, hourly wind power generation in Poland in 2020 was predicted with 26.7% mean absolute percentage error and 4.5% root mean square error accuracy. Seasonal and daily differences in predicted error were found, showing high mean absolute percentage error in summer and during daytime.
Keywords
ALARO, day-ahead, Machine Learning, numerical weather prediction, wind power forecasting
Suggested Citation
Bochenek B, Jurasz J, Jaczewski A, Stachura G, Sekuła P, Strzyżewski T, Wdowikowski M, Figurski M. Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting in Poland Based on Numerical Weather Prediction. (2023). LAPSE:2023.31640
Author Affiliations
Bochenek B: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland [ORCID]
Jurasz J: Faculty of Environmental Engineering, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 50-377 Wrocław, Poland [ORCID]
Jaczewski A: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland [ORCID]
Stachura G: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland
Sekuła P: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland; Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science, AGH University, 30-059 Krakow, Poland [ORCID]
Strzyżewski T: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland
Wdowikowski M: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland
Figurski M: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
8
First Page
2164
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-04-13
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en14082164, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.31640
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doi:10.3390/en14082164
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Apr 19, 2023
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