LAPSE:2023.31485
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.31485
How US Suppliers Alter Their Extraction Rates and What This Means for Peak Oil Theory
April 19, 2023
Hubbert suggests that oil extraction rates will have an exponentially increasing course until they reach their highest level and then they will suddenly decline. This best describes the well-acclaimed Peak Oil Theory or Peak Oil. We research whether the theory is validated in seven US plays after the shale revolution. We do so by applying two well-established methodologies for asset bubble detection in capital markets on productivity rates per day (bbl/d). Our hypothesis is that if there is a past or an ongoing oil extraction rate peak then Hubbert’s model is verified. If there are multiple episodes of productivity peaks, then it is rejected. We find that the Peak Theory is not confirmed and that shale production mainly responds to demand signals. Therefore, the oil production curve is flattened prolonging oil dependency and energy transition. Since the US production is free of geological constraints, then maximum productivity may not ever be reached due to lower demand levels. Past market failures make the US producers more cautious with productivity increases. Our period is between January 2008 and December 2021.
Keywords
COVID-19, depletion, energy security, energy transition, extraction rates, Hubbert, oil, peak oil, production, productivity
Suggested Citation
Perifanis T. How US Suppliers Alter Their Extraction Rates and What This Means for Peak Oil Theory. (2023). LAPSE:2023.31485
Author Affiliations
Perifanis T: Independent Researcher, 19004 Athens, Greece [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
3
First Page
821
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-01-24
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en15030821, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.31485
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doi:10.3390/en15030821
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Apr 19, 2023
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CC BY 4.0
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Apr 19, 2023
 
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