LAPSE:2023.31007
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.31007
Multiple Load Forecasting of Integrated Energy System Based on Sequential-Parallel Hybrid Ensemble Learning
Wenxia You, Daopeng Guo, Yonghua Wu, Wenwu Li
April 17, 2023
Accurate multivariate load forecasting plays an important role in the planning management and safe operation of integrated energy systems. In order to simultaneously reduce the prediction bias and variance, a hybrid ensemble learning method for load forecasting of an integrated energy system combining sequential ensemble learning and parallel ensemble learning is proposed. Firstly, the load correlation and the maximum information coefficient (MIC) are used for feature selection. Then the base learner uses the Boost algorithm of sequential ensemble learning and uses the Bagging algorithm of parallel ensemble learning for hybrid ensemble learning prediction. The grid search algorithm (GS) performs hyper-parameter optimization of hybrid ensemble learning. The comparative analysis of the example verification shows that compared with different types of single ensemble learning, hybrid ensemble learning can better balance the bias and variance and accurately predict multiple loads such as electricity, cold, and heat in the integrated energy system.
Keywords
ensemble learning, grid search, load forecasting of integrated energy system, maximum information coefficient
Suggested Citation
You W, Guo D, Wu Y, Li W. Multiple Load Forecasting of Integrated Energy System Based on Sequential-Parallel Hybrid Ensemble Learning. (2023). LAPSE:2023.31007
Author Affiliations
You W: College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cascaded Hydropower Stations Operation and Control, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China
Guo D: College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cascaded Hydropower Stations Operation and Control, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China
Wu Y: Hubei Electric Power Co., Ltd., Xiaogan Power Supply Company, Xiaogan 432000, China
Li W: College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Cascaded Hydropower Stations Operation and Control, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
16
Issue
7
First Page
3268
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-04-06
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en16073268, Publication Type: Journal Article
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doi:10.3390/en16073268
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