LAPSE:2023.30920
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.30920
Structure Optimization of Ensemble Learning Methods and Seasonal Decomposition Approaches to Energy Price Forecasting in Latin America: A Case Study about Mexico
April 17, 2023
The energy price influences the interest in investment, which leads to economic development. An estimate of the future energy price can support the planning of industrial expansions and provide information to avoid times of recession. This paper evaluates adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), bootstrap aggregation (bagging), gradient boosting, histogram-based gradient boosting, and random forest ensemble learning models for forecasting energy prices in Latin America, especially in a case study about Mexico. Seasonal decomposition of the time series is used to reduce unrepresentative variations. The Optuna using tree-structured Parzen estimator, optimizes the structure of the ensembles through a voter by combining several ensemble frameworks; thus an optimized hybrid ensemble learning method is proposed. The results show that the proposed method has a higher performance than the state-of-the-art ensemble learning methods, with a mean squared error of 3.37 × 10−9 in the testing phase.
Keywords
electricity spot prices, ensemble learning methods, Latin America, seasonal decomposition, time series forecasting
Suggested Citation
Klaar ACR, Stefenon SF, Seman LO, Mariani VC, Coelho LDS. Structure Optimization of Ensemble Learning Methods and Seasonal Decomposition Approaches to Energy Price Forecasting in Latin America: A Case Study about Mexico. (2023). LAPSE:2023.30920
Author Affiliations
Klaar ACR: Graduate Program in Education, University of Planalto Catarinense, Lages 88509-900, Brazil [ORCID]
Stefenon SF: Digital Industry Center, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, 38123 Trento, Italy; Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Physics, University of Udine, 33100 Udine, Italy [ORCID]
Seman LO: Graduate Program in Applied Computer Science, University of Vale do Itajai, Itajai 88302-901, Brazil; Industrial and Systems Engineering Graduate Program, Pontifical Catholic University of Parana, Curitiba 80215-901, Brazil [ORCID]
Mariani VC: Mechanical Engineering Graduate Program, Pontifical Catholic University of Parana, Curitiba 80215-901, Brazil; Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of Parana, Curitiba 81530-000, Brazil [ORCID]
Coelho LDS: Industrial and Systems Engineering Graduate Program, Pontifical Catholic University of Parana, Curitiba 80215-901, Brazil; Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of Parana, Curitiba 81530-000, Brazil [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
16
Issue
7
First Page
3184
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-03-31
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en16073184, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.30920
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doi:10.3390/en16073184
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Apr 17, 2023
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