Abstract
Municipal waste management system modeling based on the mass balance of individual waste streams allows us to answer the question of how the system will react to organizational changes, e.g., to the expected reduction in the amount of plastics or the introduction of a deposit for glass and/or plastic packaging. Based on the data on Polish municipal solid waste and the forecast of changes in its quantity and composition, as well as demographic data, a balance model was prepared to assess the impact of introducing higher and higher levels of recycling, in accordance with the circular economy assumptions on the waste management system. It has been shown that, for the Polish composition of municipal waste, even if the assumed recycling levels of individual streams are achieved, achieving the general target level of 65% recycling in 2025/30 may not be feasible. The possibility of achieving a higher level of recycling will be possible due the introduction of selective ash collection from individual home furnaces, while the impact of reducing the amount of plastics or introducing a deposit on packaging is minimal. The calculations also showed that, to complete the waste management system in Poland, we need at least 3.5 million Mg/year of incineration processing capacity and the present state (approx. 1.3 million Mg/year) is insufficient.