LAPSE:2023.29171
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.29171
Effect of the Foresight Horizon on Computation Time and Results Using a Regional Energy Systems Optimization Model
Jessica Thomsen, Noha Saad Hussein, Arnold Dolderer, Christoph Kost
April 13, 2023
Due to the high complexity of detailed sector-coupling models, a perfect foresight optimization approach reaches complexity levels that either requires a reduction of covered time-steps or very long run-times. To mitigate these issues, a myopic approach with limited foresight can be used. This paper examines the influence of the foresight horizon on local energy systems using the model DISTRICT. DISTRICT is characterized by its intersectoral approach to a regionally bound energy system with a connection to the superior electricity grid level. It is shown that with the advantage of a significantly reduced run-time, a limited foresight yields fairly similar results when the input parameters show a stable development. With unexpected, shock-like events, limited foresight shows more realistic results since it cannot foresee the sudden parameter changes. In general, the limited foresight approach tends to invest into generation technologies with low variable cost and avoids investing into demand reduction or efficiency with high upfront costs as it cannot compute the benefits over the time span necessary for full cost recovery. These aspects should be considered when choosing the foresight horizon.
Keywords
energy system model, myopic, Optimization, perfect foresight
Suggested Citation
Thomsen J, Hussein NS, Dolderer A, Kost C. Effect of the Foresight Horizon on Computation Time and Results Using a Regional Energy Systems Optimization Model. (2023). LAPSE:2023.29171
Author Affiliations
Thomsen J: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, Heidenhofstr. 2, 79110 Freiburg, Germany
Hussein NS: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, Heidenhofstr. 2, 79110 Freiburg, Germany
Dolderer A: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, Heidenhofstr. 2, 79110 Freiburg, Germany
Kost C: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, Heidenhofstr. 2, 79110 Freiburg, Germany [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
2
Article Number
en14020495
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-01-18
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en14020495, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.29171
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doi:10.3390/en14020495
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Apr 13, 2023
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