LAPSE:2023.2834
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.2834
A Multicriteria Decision Trading System Based on Prospect Theory: A Risk Return Analysis of the TODIM Method
Bruna Puppo, Michel Leles, Leonardo Mozelli, Elton Sbruzzi
February 21, 2023
This paper proposes a trading system (TS) based on a multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) process known as TODIM, (Multicriteria Interactive Decision Making) a Portuguese acronym for interactive and multicriteria decision-making. MCDA has been employed to solve financial questions because of its ability to deal with a complex environment populated with different sorts of criteria and alternatives, such as financial markets. The aim is to propose a general and adaptive tool for supporting the trading strategies of investors and market practitioners in such an environment. The reason for selecting TODIM among the different MCDA methods is that it is based on prospect theory, which assumes that the risk profile of the investor varies according to different situations, considering the risk of loss or gain. A list of simulations using some of the most prominent Brazilian stocks is performed, and the results are compared with the Buy-and-Hold benchmark and a TS based on an ensemble method for selecting trading rules. The results show that, compared to Buy-and-Hold, a TODIM-based TS provides the same level of return with a lower level of risk exposure. The consequence is superior risk adjustment parameters. As a result, we have a model with similar results in profit, but with superior results in relation to risk-based performance, which makes the method advantageous in relation to similar ones.
Keywords
multicriteria decision aid, prospect theory, risk–return analysis, TODIM, trading system
Suggested Citation
Puppo B, Leles M, Mozelli L, Sbruzzi E. A Multicriteria Decision Trading System Based on Prospect Theory: A Risk Return Analysis of the TODIM Method. (2023). LAPSE:2023.2834
Author Affiliations
Puppo B: Postgraduate Program in Operations Research, Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (CEP 12228-900), Universidade Federal de São Paulo, São Paulo 04021-001, Brazil
Leles M: Departamento de Tecnologia, Universidade Federal de São João Del-Rei, São João Del-Rei 36307-352, Brazil [ORCID]
Mozelli L: Departamento de Engenharia Eletrônica, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte 31270-901, Brazil
Sbruzzi E: Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica, São Paulo 12228-900, Brazil
Journal Name
Processes
Volume
10
Issue
3
First Page
609
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-03-21
Published Version
ISSN
2227-9717
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Original Submission
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PII: pr10030609, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.2834
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doi:10.3390/pr10030609
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Feb 21, 2023
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