The evolution of electric power systems involves several aspects, dealing with policy and economics as well as security issues. Moreover, due to the high variability of operating conditions, evolution scenarios have to be carefully defined. The aim of this paper is to propose a flow-based procedure for the preliminary security analysis of yearly network evolution scenarios at the real scale level. This procedure is based on hourly load and generation conditions given by market solutions, and exploits Power Transfer Distribution Factors and Line Outage Distribution Factors to determine N and N−1 conditions, properly accounting for possible islanding in the latter case. The analysis of overloads is carried out by dealing with big data analysis through statistic indicators, based on power system background, to draw out critical operating conditions and outages. The procedure is applied to a provisional model of a European high voltage network.